South Goa Lok Sabha Elections: Will The Flip-Flop Constituency Spring a Surprise Again?

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Of the two Lok Sabha constituencies in Goa, the South Goa seat is known for throwing somewhat unexpected results, keeping the ruling as well as the opposition camps on tenterhooks

The South Goa Lok Sabha constituency is one of two parliamentary constituencies in Goa. This is a general category seat and comprises the entire South Goa district. As many as 20 Assembly segments fall under this Lok Sabha constituency, of which the BJP currently holds 12 (Ponda, Siroda, Mormugao, Vasco Da Gama, Dabolim, Nuvem, Margao, Navelim, Curchorem, Sanvordem, Sanguem and Canacona), the Congress holds two (Quepem and Cuncolim), the Aam Aadmi Party holds two (Velim and Benaulim), while the Maharashtrawadi Gomantak Party represents the important segment of Marcaim. The Goa Forward Party has an MLA from Fatorda, while Cortalim and Curtorim are represented by Independents. The Goa South Lok Sabha seat will vote in the third phase of general elections on May 7, 2024.

Sitting MP — Francisco Sardinha

Candidates — Pallavi Shrinivas Dempo (BJP) and Viriato Fernandes (Congress)

Political Dynamics

Of the two Lok Sabha constituencies in Goa, the South Goa seat is known for throwing somewhat unexpected results, keeping the ruling as well as the opposition camps on tenterhooks. In comparison, the North Goa Lok Sabha seat has been more predictable; it’s been a bastion of the ruling BJP since 1999.
The South Goa constituency has remained more or less loyal to Congress, but the 2019 Assembly elections changed the political landscape, with BJP winning 12 of the 20 Assembly segments and the Congress two.
The BJP, which has been ruling Goa since 2012, appears to be better placed, while the Congress is contesting the election as a key constituent of the INDIA bloc, a multi-party coalition.
In the upcoming elections, the INDIA bloc is striving to retain the South Goa seat for the Congress, while the BJP’s endeavour is to wrest it.
BJP: Having 33 of the total 40 MLAs in the Goa Assembly, the BJP has developed a strong network of leaders and cadres in the state, which may work in its favour.
The BJP is banking on PM Modi’s charisma and is projecting the central government’s works in the last one decade.
The party has fielded entrepreneur Pallavi Dempo to take back the seat from the Congress. She is the executive director of Dempo Industries.
A Goan entrepreneur and educationist, Dempo holds a graduate degree in chemistry and a postgraduate degree in business management (MBA) from MIT, Pune.
The 49-year-old entrepreneur oversees the media and real estate arm of Dempo Industries as its executive director.
Dempo’s husband Shrinivas Dempo is a noted industrialist who heads the Goa Chamber of Commerce and Industries (GCCI).
BJP’s First Woman Candidate in Goa: Dempo is the first woman candidate to contest Lok Sabha elections in Goa on a BJP ticket.
It was PM Narendra Modi who reportedly nudged the state leadership to field a woman candidate from the constituency.
The Dempo family is also heavily invested in promoting education for girls. The family has adopted government high schools under the Rural School Adoption Programme to provide vocational training to girls.
Three-Phase Campaign: The BJP has reportedly been working on a three-phase campaign to ensure Dempo’s win.
The first leg of the BJP strategy involved introducing Pallavi Dempo to party karyakartas first.
Once the karyakartas were familiarised with the candidate they were campaigning for, the party adopted a classic Manohar Parrikar campaign tactic – holding nukkad meetings where Pallavi Dempo interacted with small crowds of around 30 people.
The final push, which is now underway, involves large public meetings and public events by senior BJP leaders, including a rally by Prime Minister Modi on April 27.
Inroads in Tribal and Urban Belts: According to political analysts, the BJP has made inroads into the tribal pockets of the constituency, including the forests of Quepem, Sanguem, Canacona.
It is also wooing the voters of urban localities like Margao and Mormugao.
Important Additions in the Ranks: The BJP has replenished its ranks with leaders from rival parties, most notable among whom is former chief minister Digambar Kamat.
The Congress leader, who until 2019 was one of the party’s star campaigners here, has now jumped over to the BJP’s side and is accompanying Pallavi Dempo across the constituency.
In an interview to PTI, Kamat had admitted there was a “minor feeling of being left out” among the cadre after Dempo was given the ticket but added that it was temporary.
Kamat revealed he was offered a ticket for South Goa but told the ruling party’s leadership that he wanted to stay back in the state.
Another important addition in the BJP has been Joe Dias, who was not only the South Goa District Congress chief but also the election agent of the Congress South Goa candidate in the 2019 Lok Sabha polls. He and his team had coordinated the campaign for Sardinha from the district party office in the 2019 polls. Joe recently quit the Congress and jumped ship to the BJP over being sidelined for the Congress ticket from Velim in the 2022 Assembly polls.
Congress: The INDIA coalition has the advantage of projecting itself as a united force, with Congress, AAP, Goa Forward Party, Shiv Sena (UBT) and NCP (Sharadchandra Pawar) as some of its members.
The Congress has given the South Goa ticket this time to former Indian Navy officer Viriato Fernandes.
His profile on X (formerly Twitter) states that he is a retired officer of the Indian Navy, a Kargil War soldier, a mechanical engineer with aeronautics engineering specialisation and double MBA.
Fernandes had unsuccessfully contested the 2022 Goa Legislative Assembly elections from the Dabolim constituency.
The party snubbing sitting MP Francisco Sardinha has reportedly led to a wave of discontent within the ranks, and it remains unclear whether Sardinha will support and actively campaign for Viriato Fernandes. Saradinha and Leader of Opposition Yuri Alemao were among the hopefuls who were vying for a ticket from the constituency.
In its manifesto for Goa, the Congress has promised to protect the environment and ensure the resumption of mining in the coastal state.
The Congress candidate is also seeking a victory here on the promise that he will fight for special status for Goa to protect its land for future generations.
Captain Viriato is also assuring the people that he would take up the issue of “dual citizenship” for Goans in Parliament if elected.
Starting Trouble in Alliance: In February this year, the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) had both surprised and angered the Congress amid seat-sharing talks when it unilaterally announced its MLA Venzy Viegas as the candidate from South Goa seat.
The AAP later withdrew Veigas’s name when both parties sealed a seat-sharing pact in March under which the grand old party is to contest both the Lok Sabha seats in Goa.
AAP’s Goa unit chief Amit Palekar said there was no rift between the two INDIA allies, adding that the earlier announcement was “part of election strategy”. He further said the alliance “can even continue for 2027 Goa assembly elections”.
Constitution Controversy: Viriato Fernandes’s recent comments have landed the Congress in trouble with the BJP demanding a clarification from party leader Rahul Gandhi.
Fernandes had reportedly commented that the Indian Constitution was “forced upon Goa” after it was liberated from the Portuguese in 1961.
At an election rally in Chhattisgarh, Prime Minister Narendra Modi termed the comment as an insult of Dalit icon BR Ambedkar, the architect of the Constitution of India. “This is all part of a well-thought-out conspiracy to break the country. Today, they are negating the Constitution in Goa, tomorrow they will try to negate BR Ambedkar’s Constitution all over India,” PM Modi said.
With PM Modi lashing out at Fernandes, the BJP’s South Goa leadership and cadre are charged up. The party has even facilitated the filing of a complaint against Captain Viriato at the Colva police station.
On social media and on the ground, the BJP is turning Viriato’s remarks on the Constitution into a major election issue.
It’s an interesting turn of events because the Congress has been alleging that the BJP wants to change the Constitution of the country if it is elected for a third term.
Voting Pattern: The South Goa seat, with a sizable Christian population, has mostly remained with the Congress, but was also won by the BJP and regional parties a few times.
Congress’s Francisco Sardinha had won from South Goa in the 2019 Lok Sabha polls, defeating then sitting MP Narendra Sawarkar of the BJP by a slender margin of 9,755 votes.
Sardinha had polled 47.47% of the votes, while Sawaikar had polled 45.18% votes.
The Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) was also in the fray in 2019 and its candidate Elvis Gomes had secured 4.92% votes.
The Congress has won this seat 10 times since 1962 when Goa was liberated from Portuguese rule, while the BJP has clinched it twice — in 1999 and 2014.
Regional parties have also won this seat a few times, including the Maharashtrawadi Gomantak Party (MGP) in 1962, the United Goans Party in 1967 and 1971, and the United Goans Democratic Party in 1996.
Christian Votes: The Christian population, which has been the traditional vote bank of the Congress, will remain with the INDIA grouping in this constituency, according to a section of political observers.
However, with the BJP managing to bring onboard Independent MLA from Curtorim Reginaldo Lourenco, who has lent his support to Pallavi Dempo, the party is expected to earn a substantial chunk of Christian votes in the seat.
In fact, the Congress has seen steady decline in its support base since at least 2019, which has been parallel to the rise of the BJP.
Essentially, since 2009, the BJP has been able to chip away at Congress’ voter base in South Goa.
Francisco Sardinha retained the South Goa seat for the Congress but by a thin 12,512-vote margin. This was a very promising sign for the BJP, as it effectively narrowed its loss margin from 40,000 votes to 12,512 votes.
In 2014, BJP’s Narendra Sawaikar defeated the Congress, with an impressive 32,330 vote lead. In 2019, the Congress wrested the seat back, but again, with a measly margin 9,775 votes.
MGP Influence: The BJP’s narrow defeat in the 2019 elections is said to have come about as the Maharashtrawadi Gomantak Party (MGP), which has a hold over the important Marcaim Assembly segment, had transferred its votes to the Congress.
Five years since, the MGP in back in the BJP-led National Democratic Alliance and has promised to transfer at least 80% of its votes to the saffron party.
RGP Factor: Adding to the intrigue in Goa this time is the Revolutionary Goans Party (RGP), a new regional political outfit, which has jumped into the fray.
Local reports suggest some Opposition votes may also go to the RGP, which has been extensively campaigning in this Lok Sabha segment since December last year.
The RGP has managed to attract the youth on the issue of protecting the rights of the persons of Goan origin with respect to jobs, benefits of various government schemes and education.
Demographic changes in the coastal state due to the increasing influx of citizens from other states who have made this state their home is one the election planks the RGP.
Being a new party registered in 2022, the RGP has an opportunity to influence voters who disapprove of the politics of national parties.
The RGP had won a seat in the 2022 Goa Assembly polls.

Key Constituency Issues

Mhadei Row: Goa and neighbouring Karnataka have been engaged in a tussle over sharing of the river water for several years. Goa has often accused Karnataka of proceeding unilaterally in the matter by ignoring pacts.
Opposition parties in Goa have accused the ruling BJP of failing to stop Karnataka from diverting Mhadei river water.
Revolutionary Goans Party Chief Manoj Parab claims environmentalists have exposed that Karnataka has dug up canals to divert water from the Kalsa tributary to the Malaprabha basin.
The issue was initially raised by the Goa Forward Party last month when its chief Vijai Sardesai demanded an immediate statement on Mhadei on behalf of the government.
Sustainable Tourism: The state’s Environment Secretary Arun Kumar Mishra had recently highlighted the issue of sustainable tourism in Goa while speaking at the
India Climate and Development Partners Meet hosted by the World Bank in February this year.
He said that although Goa is small in size, the per kilometre population in the state is around 400 persons, which is the highest in the country.
Four lakh persons arrive in the state every day, he said, adding that Goa’s maximum population was concentrated in the coastal areas.
The state with the coastline of 104 km holds one crore people and it is the biggest challenge for the policymakers, he said.
He said the fly-by-night operators in the tourism industry indulge in violation of laws, including those related to the environment.
“The tourism infrastructure in Goa is good, but it is not up to the world standards, due to which we don’t get quality tourists,” he said.
Tourism sector accounts for 30 to 35 per cent of the state GDP.
Bus Connectivity in Marle: After boycotting the 2019 Lok Sabha elections to highlight their demand for a road, the residents of a hamlet housing 30 families in South Goa are now seeking bus connectivity so that the youth can go out to nearby towns for jobs.
The residents, however, said they will not shun the general elections this time.
This hamlet – Marle – bordering Cotigao Wildlife Sanctuary is part of Poinguinim village panchayat in Canacona taluka of South Goa. The villagers were unanimous in boycotting the 2019 Lok Sabha elections to press for their demand for a road.
The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) government in the state finally built the road before the 2022 Assembly polls.
The locals say their demand for a bus was a legitimate one as they have to travel almost 7km to reach to the bus station.
Jobs for ‘Sons of the Soil’: This is a prominent issue, especially in the state’s rural pockets. Opposition parties, including the Congress, AAP and the Goa Forward Party have been demanding 80% reservation for locals in the private sector. The INDIA bloc is making it one of the major poll planks to attract young voters.
The Revolutionary Goans Party (RGP) is canvassing for its proposed “Person of Goan Origin Bill” to ensure that persons whose parents were born in the state before its liberation from Portuguese rule should get government jobs and other facilities.
Mining Operations: The closure of the iron ore mining industry since 2012 has adversely affected the state’s economy.
Since a number of families depend on this industry for livelihood in the iron ore-rich belt, it is a sensitive issue.
The BJP government in Goa has managed to partially resume the mining operations by auctioning the leases, the industry is yet to see a full-fledged resumption.
CRZ: The opposition parties are demanding immediate finalisation of Coastal Regulation Zone (CRZ) in the state.
The Congress says the livelihood of traditional fisherfolk on the coast is at stake.
The Goa Bench of Bombay High Court recently asked to shut down 175 establishments in the coastal belt for not adhering to norms as per Coastal Regulation Zone.
Dabolim Airport: The opening of the Manohar International Airport (MIA) at Mopa in North Goa has raised apprehensions that the Dabolim airport at a naval base in South Goa may shut down.
Chief Minister Pramod Sawant has assured that both the airports will continue to exist.
The Opposition says there has been a 20% decrease in flight operations at Dabolim due to commissioning of the Mopa airport.
Political reservation for Scheduled Tribes: The Union Cabinet recently approved a bill to facilitate reservation to Scheduled Tribes (ST) in the Goa Assembly.
CM Sawant said that four Assembly constituencies in the 40-member House would be reserved under this category.
Some tribal leaders are demanding that an ordinance be issued immediately to form a delimitation commission that would provide the reservation.
Uniform Civil Code: With the BJP government in Uttarakhand bringing into force a Uniform Civil Code and Prime Minister Narendra Modi batting for one across India as per BJP’s long-standing promise, Goa’s Uniform Civil Code has been much talked about in recent past.
A version of the UCC, a hot button issue, already exists in Goa, albeit with exceptions, and experts point out that it is basically a European law founded in Christian teaching. Still, it is uniform enough to ensure equality for all Goan residents, irrespective of religion, gender etc.
Goa has been following the Portuguese Civil Code 1867, which is also called Uniform Civil Code. After its liberation from Portuguese rule, the UCC survives through Section 5(1) of the Goa, Daman and Diu Administration Act, 1962.
The continuance of a UCC in the coastal state amounts to non-enforcement of the Hindu Marriage Act 1955 and Hindu Succession Act 1956 as well as the Indian Succession Act 1925 or Shariat (Application) Act 1937, say experts.

Voter Demographics

Social composition

SC — 1.2%

ST — 14.6%

Religious composition

Hindu — 58.5%

Christian — 32.1%

Muslim — 9.3%

Geographical composition

Urban — 63.8%

Rural — 36.2%

Major Infra Projects in South Goa

NIT Campus: In February this year, Prime Minister Narendra Modi inaugurated the permanent campus of the National Institute of Technology in Cuncolim, Goa.
The project was envisioned by the late Dr Manohar Parrikar, former chief minister of Goa, who wanted to establish an institute of national importance in the state.
NIT Goa had started functioning at its transit campus within the premises of Goa Engineering College, Farmagudi, Ponda, Goa, in 2010.
For its permanent campus, the Government of Goa transferred 113-acre land in the village of Cuncolim in July 2017.
The foundation stone for the campus was laid by Dr Manohar Parrikar, the then Chief Minister of Goa, on December 15, 2018.
The campus has a total built-up area of 70,750 sqm, with construction cost of Rs 390.83 crore and can accommodate 1,260 students.
The campus has various facilities such as a tutorial complex, departmental complex, seminar complex, administrative complex, hostels, health centre, staff quarters, amenity centre, and sports ground among other utilities.
Curchorem Solid Waste Treatment Plant: Located in Cacora, South Goa, this is an integrated facility that manages solid waste through recycling, sorting, segregation, bio-methanation, and composting.
The plant was inaugurated by Prime Minister Narendra Modi in February 2024 and is designed to serve the rural and urban populations of Quepem, Sanguem, Dharbandora, and Canacona talukas.
The plant has separate lines for wet and dry waste, with a capacity to handle 60 tonnes of wet waste and 40 tonnes of dry waste per day.
The plant’s design and technical parameters were reviewed by an expert committee that included members from IIT Bombay, NEERI, and BITS Pilani.
ONGC Sea Survival Centre: This is a training facility in South Goa that simulates realistic scenarios to help personnel exit a helicopter cabin in the event of a crash.
It’s located at the IPSHEM (Institute of Petroleum Safety, Health and Environment Management) campus, which is India’s deepest training facility.
The centre has the deepest pool in the country and can simulate realistic conditions like darkness, rain, waves, and mist.
Prime Minister Narendra Modi had inaugurated the integrated Sea Survival Training Centre on February 9, 2024.
Highway Projects: On March 1 this year, Union Minister for Road Transport and Highways Nitin Gadkari approved Rs 766.42 crore for construction and strengthening of various National Highways projects in Goa.
An allocation of Rs 455.50 crore has been granted for the construction of a 4-lane flyover spanning from MES College Junction to Bogmalo Junction, covering a total length of 3.35 km on NH-566.
A 4-lane vehicular underpass at Queeny Nagar Junction spanning 1.22km will be built under the engineering, procurement, and construction (EPC) mode within the National Highways (Original) framework.
Cuncolim Bypass: An allocation of Rs 310.92 crore has been approved for land acquisition to construct the Cuncolim Bypass from Uskini-bandh Cuncolim to Bendordem.
Spanning 8.33km on NH-66 in South Goa district, this initiative under the Annual Plan 2023-24 aims to expedite the completion of the Mumbai to Kanyakumari Economic Corridor.
Nitin Gadkari had said the bypass addresses congestion and accidents in Cuncolim town, providing improved connectivity to tourist destinations, South Goa district HQ and the capital city Panaji.
This development anticipates enhanced service levels, considerable socio-economic benefits, reduced Vehicle Operating Cost (VOC), and decreased travel time.
IIT Campus: The Indian Institute of Technology (IIT) Goa campus will be located on a plateau in Rivona village in South Goa. The Centre gave its nod to set up the campus at the Rivona site, which is 80km from Panaji, in February this year.
The Union Education Ministry has approved 10.5 lakh sqm of land at Malewada in Rivona, Sanguem for the campus.
IIT Goa has been functioning from a temporary campus at Farmagudi in South Goa since 2016.
The government had faced stiff opposition for the project twice earlier. In January 2021, the proposed IIT Goa campus project was shifted out of Shel-Melavali village in Sattari taluka of North Goa following protests by villagers.
After that, the government identified another site in Cortalim, but had to drop the idea due to the opposition by locals.
Madgaon-Mumbai Vande Bharat: Goa got its first Vande Bharat train in June last year when Prime Minister Narendra Modi virtually flagged off the Madgaon (Goa)-Mumbai Vande Bharat Express train.
The train journey offers passengers natural views of the Sahyadri mountain range and beauty of the Western Ghats.
Previously, the journey from Madgaon in South Goa to Chhatrapati Shivaji Maharaj Terminus in Mumbai, covering a distance of 586km, took 11-12 hours, but is covered by the Vande Bharat train in about eight hours.
Madgaon-Mangaluru Vande Bharat: On December 30 last year, Prime Minister Modi virtually flagged off the Vande Bharat Express trains between Mangaluru in Karnataka and Madgaon in South Goa.
The eight-coach train completes the journey in four-and-a-half-hours.
Vande Bharat Express between Mangaluru and Madgaon runs six days a week except on Thursdays.