It is ‘Abki Baar 400 Paar’ for the NDA in the 2024 general elections, as per the mega Opinion Poll of News18 whose entire results were put out on Thursday on the network.
The big opinion poll predicted that the NDA could win a whopping 411 seats in the upcoming Lok Sabha elections while the INDIA bloc may only notch up 105 seats. The big gains are coming from states like West Bengal and Uttar Pradesh, as well as the South. The poll covered 21 states, 518 constituencies and over one lakh respondents.
Prime Minister Narendra Modi has given a call for the BJP to cross 370 seats in the upcoming elections, and the NDA to cross 400 seats. The aim of the prime minister looks achievable if the projections by the Mega Opinion Poll of News18 are to go by. At 411 seats, it would also translate to a massive 3/4th majority in the Lok Sabha for the NDA for the next five years.
Big Gains
The big gains for the NDA are projected to come from the states of Uttar Pradesh, West Bengal and Odisha. The poll has predicted that NDA could win a whopping 77 of the 80 seats in UP, up by 13 from the 2019 elections. Given the prime minister’s popularity, who is himself contesting from Varanasi, the governance of Chief Minister Yogi Adityanath and the completion of the Ram Temple in Ayodhya, the NDA is set for its biggest and historic performance in UP.
The poll also projects that in West Bengal, the BJP will notch up its best performance with 25 seats, up by seven seats from 2019 and that the TMC may win only 17 seats and fall behind the BJP. In Odisha too, the NDA is expected to cross the BJD for the first time and notch up 13 seats while the BJD is projected to only get eight Lok Sabha seats. An alliance is still in the works between the BJP and BJD for the elections.
South blockbuster
The News18 Mega Opinion poll projects that the NDA could win as many as 58 seats in the five southern states, doubling its tally from 29 seats in these states in the 2019 elections. After the BJP-TDP-Pawan Kalyan alliance in Andhra Pradesh, the NDA is projected to win 18 of the 25 seats in the state. Last time, the BJP could not open its account here.
The big surprise is projected to come from Tamil Nadu and Kerala where the NDA could open its account with five and two seats respectively, as per the opinion poll. In Telangana, the NDA could win eight seats, double of last time. This will be the first time that the NDA would emerge as the biggest party in Telangana in a Lok Sabha election, trumping the INDIA bloc that is projected to win six seats and BRS just two.
The NDA coalition is also likely to win 25 of 28 seats in the upcoming Lok Sabha elections in Karnataka and retain its stronghold state despite losing the assembly elections there. Last time in 2019 too, BJP won 25 out of 28 seats in Karnataka. This time, it is in an alliance with the JDS.
Strongholds Retained
The opinion poll projects that the NDA will retain its strongholds from 2019. Of 48 seats in Maharashtra, the NDA comprising the BJP and Eknath Shinde and Ajit Pawan factions could win 41 seats. Last time in 2019 too, BJP along with the Uddhav Thackeray-led Shiv Sena had won 41 seats. BJP is also projected to do a clean sweep in Rajasthan (25 seats), Gujarat (26 seats), Himachal Pradesh (4 seats) and Uttarakhand (5 seats).
In Bihar, the NDA has been projected to win 38 out of the 40 seats after Nitish Kumar returned to the BJP fold. BJP is projected to win 28 out of the 29 seats in Madhya Pradesh like in 2019, and 10 out of the 11 seats in Chhattisgarh. BJP is also projected to win all 10 seats in Haryana and seven seats in Delhi. This is despite the party changing its chief minister in Haryana and changing six of seven sitting MPs in Delhi.
Good Gains
The NDA is projected to make good gains in Assam where it could win 12 out of the 14 seats, up three seats from last time, and win 12 of the 14 seats in Jharkhand. In Punjab, the BJP is also expected to do better than last time and win three seats in the upcoming Lok Sabha elections.
The projections are bleak for the INDIA camp which is expected to do well only in states like Tamil Nadu, Kerala and Punjab.
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