India's GDP Beats Estimates To Grow At 8.4% In Third Quarter, Pegged At 7.6% This Fiscal

India’s Q3 GDP Data Out: India’s gross domestic product (GDP) grew 8.4 per cent y-o-y during the October-December 2023 quarter (Q3 FY24) as compared with the 4.3 per cent growth recorded a year ago, according to the latest official data released on Thursday, February 29. The Q3 FY24 GDP growth is higher than what was expected by analysts.

For the Q3 FY24, analysts had expected a slower GDP growth of between 6 per cent and 7 per cent. India’s economy had grown 7.6 per cent in the preceding July-September 2023 quarter.

Robust 8.4% GDP growth in Q3 2023-24 shows the strength of Indian economy and its potential, Prime Minister Narendra Modi said.

“Our efforts will continue to bring fast economic growth which shall help 140 crore Indians lead a better life and create a Viksit Bharat!” PM Modi added.

The government also pegs the FY24 GDP growth rate at 7.6 per cent, according to an official statement.

“GDP at Constant (2011-12) Prices in Q3 of 2023-24 is estimated at Rs 43.72 lakh crore, against Rs 40.35 lakh crore in Q3 of 2022-23, showing a growth rate of 8.4 per cent,” according to the statement.

According to the latest data released by the National Statistical Office (NSO), India’s gross value added or GVA, which is GDP minus net product taxes and reflects growth in supply, also grew 6.5 per cent year-on-year during October-December 2023.

According to the latest official data, growth in the manufacturing sector jumped to 11.6 per cent in the third quarter of the current fiscal as compared with minus 4.8 per cent in the year-ago period.

India’s agriculture sector, however, declined to minus 0.8 per cent growth in Q3 FY24, which is lower than the 5.2 per cent recorded in the October-December quarter of 2022-23.

Gross fixed capital formation (GFCF), which is an indicator of investment activity in the country, grew 10.58 per cent to Rs 14.18 lakh crore during the December 2023 quarter. GFCF accounts for 32.4 per cent of the GDP.

Private final consumption expenditure (PFCE) grew 3.51 per cent year-on-year to Rs 25.60 lakh crore in Q3 FY24. However, government final consumption expenditure (GFCE) fell 3.16 per cent YoY to Rs 3.41 lakh crore.

GDP in nominal terms, which factors in inflation, grows 10.1 per cent.

India’s April-January FY24 Fiscal Deficit

India’s fiscal deficit during April-January 2024 stood at Rs 11.03 lakh crore, hitting 63.6 per cent of the full FY24 revised target, according to the latest official data released on February 29. The deficit is lower than the Rs 11.9 lakh crore, or 67.8 per cent of the full-year target, recorded in April-January FY2023.

Core Sector Data For January 2024

The growth of eight key infrastructure sectors slowed to a 15-month low of 3.6 per cent in January, on account of poor performance of sectors like refinery products, fertiliser, steel and electricity, according to the official data released on Thursday. It was 9.7 per cent in January 2023.

The growth of eight core sectors — coal, crude oil, natural gas, refinery products, fertiliser, steel, cement and electricity — was 4.9 per cent in December.