CARDIFF, Wales: South Africa beat New Zealand in its last outing and New Zealand put 54 points on Wales last weekend, so it stands to reason Wales is in for another long Saturday when they host the Springboks.
Except maybe not for one reason: Wales doesn’t have a hang up about South Africa like it does about New Zealand.
The Welsh last beat New Zealand 68 years ago. They aren’t entirely convinced they can win.
The Welsh last beat South Africa three years ago. In fact, they have downed South Africa on its last four visits to Cardiff. In this regard, the Welsh are fully convinced they can prevail, they have no mental blocks, they know the taste of victory at South Africa’s expense.
A fifth successive win over the visitors at Principality Stadium isn’t out of the question, though its not expected.
Even with the match falling in the official test rugby window and all overseas Wales internationals becoming accessible, only four players were summoned for duty to a squad heavily depleted by injuries.
The welcome return of Dan Biggar, Nick Tompkins and Louis Rees-Zammit — an off-form Liam Williams is in the reserves — should at least repair the inaccuracy of the kick-chase game that was ruthlessly exploited by the All Blacks. But they are not forwards, whose set-piece inefficiency was also exposed by the All Blacks.
Only three of the Wales pack which mastered the Springboks in 2018 in Cardiff have survived, including flanker Ellis Jenkins, whose last test was that match. His right knee was torn up in the last minute and he didn’t play again until February this year.
Jenkins’ leadership expertise will also be important for Wales following the loss of talismanic captain Alun Wyn Jones to a shoulder injury that is expected to rule him out of the Six Nations. Coach Wayne Pivac said this week he also expects 36-year-old Jones back before the end of the season and to even soldier on to a fifth World Cup.
If the New Zealand match did anything positive apart from yielding 4 million pounds in much-needed funds, it enlightened Wales on the speed and power which South Africa will bring, and then Australia in two weeks.
The Springboks’ last-gasp win over New Zealand in Australia a month ago restored their faith in their criticized system which, much like Wales’ game plan in their recent Cardiff contests, has been based on kick-chase and defense.
They are rested, settled, comfortable in their tactics, and bent on a first win in Cardiff since 2013. There are only three changes, all in the backline, to a lineup with a deep core of 2019 Rugby World Cup winners who beat Wales in the semifinals.
Everyone does their analysis and we watch games, so you have always got an idea of what a team is going to bring and what their DNA is going into the game, recalled wing Jesse Kriel says. But there is always that 20% of what you don’t know they are going to bring.
“So it is just about focusing on our systems and doing things the way we want to — dominating the physical part of things — and the rest will sort itself out.
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Lineups:
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Wales: Johnny McNicholl, Louis-Rees-Zammit, Jonathan Davies (captain), Nick Tompkins, Josh Adams, Dan Biggar, Tomos Williams; Aaron Wainwright, Taine Basham, Ellis Jenkins, Adam Beard, Will Rowlands, Tomas Francis, Ryan Elias, Rhys Carre. Reserves: Bradley Roberts, Wyn Jones, WillGriff John, Ben Carter, Seb Davies, Gareth Davies, Gareth Anscombe, Liam Williams.
South Africa: Damian Willemse, Jesse Kriel, Lukhanyo Am, Damian de Allende, Makazole Mapimpi, Handr Pollard, Herschel Jantjies; Duane Vermeulen, Kwagga Smith, Siya Kolisi (captain), Lood de Jager, Eben Etzebeth, Trevor Nyakane, Bongi Mbonambi, Ox Nch. Reserves: Malcolm Marx, Steven Kitshoff, Vincent Koch, Franco Mostert, Jasper Wiese, Cobus Reinach, Elton Jantjies, Frans Steyn.
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