The July 12 elections for 11 Members of Legislative Council (MLC) are being seen as a semi-final before the Maharashtra assembly polls.
The political situation in Maharashtra has remained volatile since the 2019 state Assembly polls, with the state seeing the collapse of two governments and the swearing-in of three chief ministers. Two-and-a-half-years ago, the MLC elections saw cross-voting in the then ruling Maha Vikas Aghadi (Congress, undivided Shiv Sena and Nationalist Congress Party (NCP) alliance) in favour of the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), which was considered as the first step towards the collapse of the Uddhav Thackeray-led government.
Later, it was revealed that Eknath Shinde’s group of Shiv Sena MLAs had helped the BJP’s candidates win, while the Congress candidate, who was expected to get first-preference votes, lost that election. With no action despite the eye-opener, the Thackeray government eventually collapsed, with a rebellion by Shinde and more than 50 Shiv Sena MLAs. The state saw a new government of the Shiv Sena-BJP alliance, with Shinde as the chief minister and Devendra Fadnavis his deputy.
MAHAYUTI AND MVA CANDIDATES
After the 2022 jolt, the Mahayuti (Shinde Sena, Ajit Pawar’s NCP and BJP) and the MVA, comprising the Congress, Thackeray’s Sena and Sharad Pawar’s NCP, are set for the biennial elections. The ruling Mahayuti alliance has fielded nine candidates, while the Opposition MVA has three nominees in the fray. With five candidates, the BJP has fielded the most, with Ajit Pawar’s NCP and Shinde’s Shiv Sena getting two nominees each. Among the MVA partners, Congress and Shiv Sena (UBT) have fielded one candidate each, while the NCP (SP) is supporting Peasants and Workers’ Party of India candidate Jayant Patil. Sena (UBT) has chosen Thackeray’s confidant Milind Narvekar, and Congress has renominated Pradnya Satav, wife of late Congress leader Rajeev Satav. With no withdrawal of candidates, the election will take place on July 12.
All eyes will be on Narvekar, who has connections in all parties and is capable of managing the extra votes MVA may need. According to the quota of votes, MVA has the strength to get only two candidates elected based on first-preference votes. However, when Narvekar filed his nomination, it sent a clear message to the ruling Mahayuti that their votes might get divided.
The BJP has nominated OBC leader from Marathwada, Pankaja Munde, who recently lost the Lok Sabha election to an NCP candidate. Other candidates are Amit Gorkhe, Sadabhau Khot, Yogesh Tilekar and Parinay Phuke, who has been given another chance. Shinde’s Shiv Sena has given candidacy to former MPs Bhawana Gawli and Krupal Tumane, whose tickets were cut in the Lok Sabha elections due to anti-incumbency and negative survey reports. To pacify these influential leaders, Shinde has provided them a backdoor entry. Ajit Pawar has shown confidence in his loyalists Shivajirao Garje and Rajesh Vitekar.
NUMBERSPEAK
According to the numbers, each MLC candidate will need 23 first-choice votes to secure their seat for the next six years.
The ruling BJP, Shiv Sena and NCP have 179 MLAs, and with their other alliance partners, the tally goes up to 203. In contrast, the MVA, consisting of Congress, Shiv Sena (UBT), and NCP (SP), has a bench strength of 69.
Additionally, there are two AIMIM MLAs who have not pledged their support to either alliance. This election will be conducted through a secret ballot, making it crucial for every party to keep their flock together for the precursor to the state assembly polls.
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