With India recording 1,94,720 fresh Covid-19 cases and 442 deaths in the last 24 hours, a survey has revealed that prevalence of COVID in close social networks has doubled within a week. A survey by community social media platform LocalCircles found that 50% of citizens now have 1 or more people in their close social network (family, friends, neighbours, colleagues) who have tested COVID-19 positive in the last 30 days.
This percentage has increased from 26% on January 3 to 50% on January 10, indicating that the prevalence of COVID in close networks of citizens has doubled within a week. Of the 50% who have 1 or more people impacted with COVID, 23% know over 5 individuals testing positive within the last 30 days. The survey received more than 30,000 responses from citizens across 371 districts of India.
LocalCircles’ surveys in May 2020 or during the first wave of COVID-19 indicated that 7% of citizens had 1 or more individuals in their close social network who tested COVID positive in the last 30 days. This percentage saw a drastic increase during the initial phase of the second wave in March 2021 to 51%.
With 1 in 6 already not getting tested and going into quarantine and self-treatment, and the new Indian Council of Medical Research (ICMR) guidelines encouraging healthy and mildly symptomatic individuals to not undertake the RT-PCR, this number is likely to rapidly rise further understating the daily caseloads in India.
50% HAVE 1 OR MORE PEOPLE IN THEIR CLOSE SOCIAL NETWORK WHO HAVE TESTED COVID POSITIVE
On January 10, the first question in the survey asked citizens, “How many individuals do you have in your close social network (family, friends, neighbours, colleagues) that that tested positive for COVID in the last 30 days?”
In response, 48% of citizens said they have “No one in the last 30 days” who tested COVID positive. Breaking down the poll, 9% said they know “More than 10” individuals, 14% said “6-10”, 11% said “3-5”, and 16% said “1 or 2”. Only 2% couldn’t say. On an aggregate basis, 50% of citizens now have 1 or more people in their close social network who have tested COVID positive in the last 30 days. This question in the survey received 9,809 responses.
PREVALENCE OF COVID IN CLOSE NETWORKS HAS DOUBLED WITHIN A WEEK
A similar question when asked to citizens as on January 3 with 9,014 responses found out that 26% of citizens had 1 or more people in their close social network who had tested COVID positive in the last 30 days. This percentage has increased to 50% now, suggesting that the spread prevalence of COVID in close networks has doubled within a week.
COVID PREVALENCE RISING IN SPREAD AND DEPTH
The percentage of citizens who know over 5 individuals in their close network who have tested COVID positive in the last 30 days have shot up from zero on January 3 to 23% on January 10. Further, the percentage of citizens saying they don’t have anyone in their close social network who tested positive in the last 30 days decreased from 69% to 48% during the period. This means that the COVID prevalence among close networks of citizens is rising in spread or width as well as depth.
Citizens in large cities have also reported that many individuals in their networks are doing antigen tests at home instead of getting an RT-PCR done or not taking a test at all and then going into quarantine or self-treatment.
NO RT-PCR TEST DONE
The second question asked citizens, “How many individuals in your close social network in the last 30 days, despite having COVID symptoms did not get a COVID RT-PCR test done and instead went into self-treatment/quarantine at home?”.
In response, the majority of 75% of citizens said they have “No one in the last 30 days”.
There were, however, 1% of citizens who said they know “More than 10”, 4% know “3-5”, and 10% know “1-2” individuals. On an aggregate basis, 15% of citizens surveyed say they have 1 or more individuals in their close social network, including family, friends, neighbours, colleagues, who despite having COVID symptoms in the last 30 days did not get a test done and went into self-treatment or quarantine at home. This question in the survey received 10,176 responses.
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