The clock is ticking down on the deadline for Maharashtra Assembly Speaker Rahul Narwekar to deliver his verdict on the disqualification petitions against Chief Minister Eknath Shinde and several MLAs whose rebellion had split the Shiv Sena in June 2022.
The deadline set by the Supreme Court for delivering the verdict was December 31, 2023 but some days before that, on December 15, the apex court allowed a 10-day extension and set January 10 as the new date for a decision.
Sources told News18 that Narwekar is likely to pronounce the order by 3pm on January 10. A source also indicated that since the order is likely to be more than 100 pages along, first the operative part will be shared and later the full order will be conveyed to both parties.
THE SAGA SO FAR
In June 2022, Eknath Shinde and several MLAs had rebelled against then chief minister Uddhav Thackeray, leading to a split in the Shiv Sena and fall of the Maha Vikas Aghadi coalition, which also comprised the Nationalist Congress Party and the Congress.
Cross petitions were filed by the Shinde and Thackeray factions seeking action against the other under anti-defection laws.
After the rebellion in June 2022, Eknath Shinde went on to become Maharashtra CM with the support of the Bharatiya Janata Party. In July last year, the Ajit Pawar faction of the Nationalist Congress Party joined his government.
The Election Commission gave the ‘Shiv Sena’ name and ‘bow and arrow’ symbol to the Shinde-led faction, while the one headed by Thackeray was to be called Shiv Sena (UBT) with its symbol being a flaming torch.
LIKELY SCENARIOS
Irrespective of who the Speaker’s order favours, the government will be safe since it has stable numbers in the Assembly.
If the Speaker’s order goes against Shinde and the 15 MLAs, the CM may have to make way for another face from the ‘Mahayuti’ government for the top job. Things will also get complicated for Shinde faction of the Shiv Sena come Lok Sabha elections as without a prominent position, its votes may get transferred to the Shiv Sena-UBT.
In such a situation, the BJP may force the Shinde faction to contest Lok Sabha elections on BJP tickets instead. Losing the disqualification battle would also mean Shinde and his ministers lose their cabinet berths, which would then be distributed among BJP leaders and the Ajit Pawar camp.
Top replacement options for Shinde as CM would be the two deputy chief ministers – Devendra Fadnavis and Ajit Pawar. Given the BJP numbers in the coalition, the former would be an obvious choice since
Former chief minister Fadnavis, however, said recently that in case Eknath Shinde is disqualified from the Legislative Assembly, the coalition will bring him back to the CM’s chair via the Legislative Council.
Constitution expert Ulhas Bapat, however, has a different take on the contingency plan. “Once Shinde is disqualified, he can’t become a member of the lower house for six years, the period mentioned under law. Once that period is over, he can contest elections and become a minister/chief minister. But if he takes the Legislative Council route, he can’t become a minister as he will be a nominated member and not an elected member of the Upper House.”
Shinde would also have the option of approaching the Supreme Court. In fact, functionaries from both Shinde and Thackeray factions have said they would approach the apex court in case of an unfavourable verdict from the Speaker.
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