Lucknow: After suffering unexpected losses in Gorakhpur and Phulpur bypolls, BJP exacted its revenge on Mayawati when BSP candidate Bhimrao Ambedkar was defeated by the BJP nominee Anil Agarwal in a close contest.
Stakes were high and the focus intense since it was not just about who wins the tenth seat, but more about how the SP-BSP alliance will perform having ousted BJP in the recently concluded Lok Sabha bypolls in the state.
There were ten seats in the fray. The BJP was assured to win eight of them. Akhilesh had enough votes to get its one candidate through. For the final tenth seat, it was Mayawati vs BJP. With help from BJP allies and some cross-voting, the BJP candidate Anil Agarwal sailed through.
Ultimately, the BJP might have won in the race to the Upper House but the alliance didn't falter.
It was not just the SP which kept up its promise to BSP chief Mayawati, even the Congress stood by its commitment for Behen ji. So even in the defeat, the alliance sailed through, indicating that the new-found bonhomie between the SP-BSP is here to stay.
Significantly, soon after his party's defeat on Friday night, BSP's national general secretary Satish Chandra Mishra held BJP solely responsible for his party's defeat.
He said: “BJP had won the seat through manipulation and use of money power. Our Alliance partners, the Samajwadi party and Congress stood up to their commitment."
Mishra's statement holds vital clue about future of the larger grand opposition alliance against the BJP.
However, on the specific question about the future of the SP-BSP alliance, BSP general secretary said “our president Mayawati will take a final call on it”.
But then this response is obvious, keeping in mind that in BSP it’s ultimately Mayawati who takes a final call on political strategy.
Analysis of the votes polled by BSP makes it clear that alliance did not perform badly.
With just 19 MLAs in the House, BSP was not in a position to win on its own. BJP, on the other hand, after sending eight of its candidates to Rajya Sabha by First preference votes had 28 surplus votes of first preference. While BSP needed approximately 20 extra votes to win the seat, BJP only required eight to nine extra votes.
The only reason why BSP dared to contest was assurance from the SP and the Congress.
Only 17 of BSP MLAs were available for voting as Mukhtar Ansari was in jail and the other member Anil Singh drifted to the BJP.
So if BSP got 32 votes of 1st preference, it means it got 16 votes from the SP- Congress camp.
This support of 16 from SP and also the Congress holds significance and indicates that both of the two were serious towards their commitment to BSP chief Mayawati.
While SP transferred nine votes, Congress transferred all of its seven votes to BSP candidate BR Ambedkar.
SP with only 47 MLAs, first needed minimum 37 votes to ensure victory of its candidate Jaya Bachchan. Jaya actually got 38 votes.
Analysis indicates that probably BSP didn't get the lone vote of the RLD MLA, this despite the promise from RLD's top leadership.
Samajwadi Party's MLC and Akhilesh Yadav's close associate Sunil Singh Sajjan said: “We will have to look into the role of 'others' for this loss of two votes. SP transferred nine votes as per its commitment and so did the Congress.”
The 'others' in this case is a reference probably to the RLD MLA and a possible lone black sheep within the larger opposition alliance, which also included two independents - Kunda MLA Raja Bhaiya and Vinod Sonkar
Sajjan further added: “We tried our best; opposition unity remained almost unbreached...BJP won the seat through deceit.”
SP president, in a gesture of good will, cancelled all celebrations planed for the victory of the party candidate Jaya Bachchan.
However, BJP reads the Rajya Sabha poll results in a different light. Immediately, after its victory, UP Chief Minister Yogi Adityanath reached Vidhan sabha on Friday night and accused SP of back stabbing the BSP.
He said, “The SP knows only to take and never returns the favour.”
Yogi was referencing to SP's win in Phulpur and Gorakhpur Lok Sabha bypolls, which the party won with BSP's support.
Talking to News18, UP's power Minister Srikant Sharma was sharper in his attack on the Samajwadi Party.
He said, “BSP chief should now reflect on how much she can bank on Akhilesh Yadav and his party… Bhatija has given a memorable gift to Bua ji.”
Clearly, BJP hopes to discredit the opposition alliance, trying to create fissures within the SP-BSP unity ahead of the crucial 2019 Lok Sabha elections.
Mayawati and Akhilesh have not spoken till now on the future prospect of the alliance, but then point is that Rajya Sabha's electoral dynamics are entirely different from that of the general elections.
It will, therefore, be not politically very prudent to read these elections as an indicator of things likely to happen ahead of the bigger battle of 2019. Even in the BSP's defeat and amidst BJP's mighty presence in the state Assembly 'the opposition alliance' has performed well.
Both Akhilesh and Mayawati should therefore have no major reason to be upset.
Considering a little bump post their victory in the bypolls, it will be unwise to write off the alliance just depending upon the Rajya sabha election results.
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