New Delhi: The Mulayam Singh Yadav Government could be at risk of facing the usual anti-incumbency wave in the Uttar Pradesh Assembly elections next month, yet the Samajwadi Party leader remains the choicest man for the post of chief minister among most UP voters.
However, former UP chief minister and Bahujan Samaj Party leader Mayawati is in a neck-and-neck race with him for the top government post with just one percentage point difference in voting.
These were the findings of a comprehensive pre-poll survey conducted at the starting point of the poll race. The Indian Express-CNN-IBN pre-poll survey was conducted by the Centre for the Study of Developing Society or CSDS in 305 locations spread across 79 Assembly constituencies in the state between March 19 and 23.
30
Mayawati
29
Kalyan Singh
15
Rahul Gandhi
5.5
Rajnath Singh
2.1
Ajit Singh
1.4
BJP’s chief ministerial candidate Kalyan Singh is ranked third in order of voters’ preference with only 15 per cent votes, which is way behind the vote shares of Mulayam (30 per cent) and Mayawati (29 per cent).
The survey also brings bad news for Congress’ star campaigner and young MP Rahul Gandhi, who has been trying hard to improve the party performance in the state this time around.
For, when asked to rank Rahul Gandhi as a potential chief ministerial candidate, only 5.5 per cent voters showed preference for the young member of the Gandhi family. The poll was, however, done before Rahul Gandhi’s roadshows in Western UP last week.
BJP President Rajnath Singh came even behind him with just 2.1 per cent vote share while Ajit Singh was the least-preferred man for the CM’s post with 1.4 per cent vote share.
Overall, the polls point to a two-horse-race in the UP polls this time and predict a hung Assembly yet again.
The findings of the Indian Express-CNN-IBN pre-poll survey were based on the response of a sample of 11,060 people drawn randomly from the electoral rolls of the sampled polling booths. Of them, 4,988 respondents were interviewed face-to-face at their residence using a structured questionnaire.
The survey could not be conducted in Dhampur Assembly constituency and three polling stations of Sikandra Rao Assembly constituency due to unavailability of the revised electoral rolls.
The final sample was fairly representative of the social and regional diversity of the state. There was under-representation of some sections of the electorate: 43 per cent women (against 47 per cent in the state), 13 per cent Muslims (against 18 per cent in the state) and 11 per cent urban (against 21 per cent in the state). This was corrected by statistical weightage.
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