Thiruvananthapuram: The much awaited Kerala local body election results will be declared on Saturday. It is a very crucial election for the CPI-M led Left Democratic Front (LDF) and the Congress-led UDF. The election will also give the answer if the BJP be able to make inroads into the state. With assembly elections due in less than six months, the results will show a clear trend on which side the state is.
During civic polls it’s the local issues like garbage disposal, stray dog menace, development of roads that are in the forefront and become major campaign topics. But in Kerala apart from local issues, national issues like the Dadri lynching, "beef raid" at Kerala house, Delhi and the vigilance court order against state Finance Minister KM Mani are being widely discussed and expected to have impacted the elections.
For the LDF the elections are more like a do or die situation. This election result will be important nationally as Kerala is still one place that supports the Left and they do not want to lose their ground. There have been several corruption charges against the UDF government but the LDF was not able to convert it to election victories during by-elections.
BJP’S new found relationship with SNDP, the organisation of the Hindu Ezhava community, a strong base of the Left, may also add to their trouble. The Left leaders led by Opposition leader VS Achuthanandan is moving in a co-ordinated way and taking on the opponents.
Left leaders are confident of the election victory, and claim the people are fed up with the corruption of the UDF government. They also say that though leaders of the SNDP are with BJP, the community is with the Left.
This is a great challenge for UDF and Chief Minister Oommen Chandy. Even after the vigilance court ordered further investigation in the bar bribe scam, the CM had maintained that there was no need for his finance minister to resign.
An election win will prove that though the opposition has been raising several corruption charges, it’s not having an effect on the people. Even when Congress saw a debacle nationally, UDF won 12 out of the 20 seats from Kerala. Congress under Chandy has also not lost a single by-election since the government came to power in 2011.
Chief Minister Oommen Chandy said that the UDF is fully confident of winning this election because of the support from people for the UDF government over the past four and a half years. The CM also said that people of Kerala would never support the communal agenda of the BJP. The major issue that the Congress is raising is its development agenda. Senior leader A K Antony had termed this election as a semi-final, following which all other parties, including the BJP, will be out of the race. The finals will be between UDF and LDF.
The BJP also has high hopes during this election. The state so far has not produced a single MLA or MP for the party. In the local bodies, the BJP is ruling three panchayats in Kasargode district and they expect to increase the tally. Even the alliance with the SNDP has not taken off as expected. The issues raised by the BJP are corruption, poor waste management and lack of development.
Political analysts say that if the Left or the Congress win, it will be important nationally. For the Left this election is their great chance, as in the past three by-elections they couldn’t get electoral victory over UDF.
For the UDF also it’s a chance for revival nationally. If they get a huge victory in the local body polls then there are chances of a second UDF government in the wake of the upcoming Assembly elections. Though there are many corruption charges, Chief Minister Oommen Chandy has managed to create connect with the people, especially with his Mass conduct programme.
Analysts felt that though the BJP might better their number tally, it will not be in high numbers as they expect or claim to be. The elections were held in two phases on November 2 and November 5 to decide the fate of as many as 75, 549 candidates.
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