The result for Karnataka is out. The Indian National Congress (INC) has won the elections by a massive margin, and therefore, the party has reason to celebrate. Winning 136 seats with a vote share of 42.88 percent, the Congress has come out as a massive force a year ahead of the 2024 Lok Sabha elections.
But there is another election story with a different protagonist at the centre of it. Yogi Adityanath, who was seen in a limited number of rallies in Karnataka, was focusing on his bastion for civic polls at the same time.
The massive margin with which the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) has won in the Uttar Pradesh Municipal Elections 2023 tells that Yogi Adityanath has come out of the shadow of Narendra Modi since this was an election in a state that has been fought under the direct leadership and supervision of the UP chief minister, ever since he took over the state in 2017. This might spark a fresh discussion about his growing prominence in the BJP and the prospects of his future roles as someone with the potential to be the successor. Having been the longest uninterrupted CM of a state, that is numerically the most crucial, despite resonates the same.
This trajectory of his growth in the country and the party, if possible, is subject to factors that vary from the BJP’s internal factors to factors distant from the party.
Internal
In 2024, if the BJP wins, PM Modi would be 73, two years short of retiring (unwritten) age in BJP. So far, Modi has been the biggest differentiating factor, as no leader from the Opposition currently holds the stature to challenge him, single or unitedly. His absence would allow the Opposition parties to bridge that gap while the BJP would need a face to continue garnering support. It has become crucial for the BJP to look out for a successor with a potential appeal who can be groomed till that time. Yogi, in that way, could be the best bet for the BJP and the Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh (RSS) in its outreach to the masses through a continued populist appeal, coupled with the traditional sense of organisation, which for few years has been a subject of various discussions.
If this bet pays off, it will slide him up as a mass leader and a perceived able administrator with a potential electoral impact not just in UP, but across the Hindi heartland.
External
Yogi Adityanath’s increasing popularity has helped him be the most popular chief minister across party lines. Creating parallels with PM Narendra Modi, he has been successful in creating a ‘symbolic’ model of his own. On the lines of Modi’s ‘development model’ for Gujarat, Yogi’s ‘Law & Order’ model; with a great emphasis on effective propagation using all possible platforms and clarity of narrative through messaging, has too been focused. His seriousness on publicity and image building in propagating claims about ‘transforming UP,’ like how PM Modi did in his second term as Gujarat CM. An example would be CM Yogi laying the foundation stone for 2029 development projects, something he has been criticised for doing in the past as well.
Adding to it, his continued strong Hindu image helps him in consolidating the support base which has been strongly inclined towards Narendra Modi. It is something that all leaders in the BJP or in any Opposition parties lack. His publicly made jibes like 80 percent vs 20 percent, and chacha jaan-abba jaan are something even many of the BJP leaders would shy away from making.
Adityanath’s image as a Hindu monk might help the party consolidate the Hindutva-believing voter base when some are seeing Modi mellowing down in his ‘Hindu ideology’, particularly when the Opposition parties are making efforts to revive the Mandal politics.
Conclusion
Though the above-mentioned factors might support him, the BJP has been a party of duos in terms of top leadership management. Atal Bihari Vajpayee had Lal Krishna Advani, and Narendra Modi has Amit Shah. So far, Yogi has been riding solo and with time, he would need close confidants to manoeuvre, at least within the party. Adding to it, there would be external factors that he would need to address. Despite the political significance, UP remains one of the poorest states in the country. The state has been suffering from an economic downturn, soaring unemployment and routine news of crime against women.
These would be some of the biggest bottlenecks for Yogi that he would have to address before looking up for something more.
Siddharth Raina is a Delhi-based independent researcher having worked in political campaigns in state of Punjab, Andhra Pradesh and Bihar. Views are personal.
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