South-west monsoon coming, wait for a week

BHUBANESWAR: The State may well have to wait for another week for arrival of the south-west monsoon.Although the India Meteorological Department (IMD) predicted on Wednesday that the monsoon may advance into Orissa within the next two to three days, the progress is unlikely before June 13. The IMD prediction was primarily based on the formation of a system off Orissa coast which would have activated the monsoon stream and ensured its advancement into the State.However, the upper air cyclonic circulation seems to have weakened and is unlikely to help the progress of monsoon. However, the silver lining is that a fresh system is expected to form by June 13 and it may become well-marked.‘’The Bay of Bengal wing of the monsoon is strongly affected by formation of weather systems over the sea. The reason why last year rainfall fell short of the mark was none of the low pressure areas turned into depressions,’’ said an analyst.While there is no effective system over the Bay of Bengal, the normal progress of monsoon has been tardy. It covered some parts of North-Eastern states but has not progressed much beyond that.The northern limit has not made any significant progress in the last five days. The IMD sources said the actual progress has been more or less stationary since June 4.The monsoon has covered most parts of Karnataka, large portions of Maharashtra but only a small region of Andhra Pradesh. While it was expected that the monsoon will hit the State from the southern region after covering AP’s Rayalaseema and Telangana, it has not happened so far in view of its static nature.The agro-meteorology wing of OUAT had also predicted on the similar lines earlier this week. There is no indication of active monsoon or formation of a low pressure over the Bay of Bengal which would cause monsoon rains in the State. It had also stated that monsoon onset is unlikely before June 15 unless a low pressure is formed prior to that.However, several other models predict that the June rainfall in the State would be normal which is indicative of the fact that the second half of the month will witness higher rainfall.Although June 10 has normally been marked as the monsoon onset date for Orissa, the last decade has witnessed a shift towards the latter part of the month’s second week.