In politics, as in the game of chess, the first mover usually has an advantage. A good politician, like a good chess player, is one who can pre-empt the opponent's move.
And if you know your opponent's mind well enough because you have worked in close quarters, then you perhaps use every trick in the book and beyond to block that move.
That's what Congress' election strategist Prashant Kishor forced the Congress to do. An announcement of Sheila Dikshit as chief minister forced the BJP to go into a huddle.
Sources in the BJP may dismiss the first-of-its-kind Congress move of announcing a CM six months in advance but the fact is that the BJP is finding itself in a bind over the CM face.
Some BJP MPs from Uttar Pradesh whom we spoke to suggest that in the absence of a strong caste leader "the party shouldn't fall for the CM-candidate trap."
A leader who understands the state well built his argument saying: "Akhilesh Yadav is the OBC face for the Samajwadi party, Mayawati is the Dalit face for the BSP and the Congress has already announced a Brahmin face in Sheila Dikshit. Which caste should we go for?
There is no dominant caste that's left in political landscape of Uttar Pradesh for the BJP to appropriate in this election. The Brahmins constitute 13 percent, the Dalits form roughly 21 percent and OBCs are 30 percent.
One of the questions on the form is also whether the party should have a CM candidate at all? The results of which will be submitted to the party leadership by the month-end.
COLLECTIVE LEADERSHIP?
The BJP's thakur face Rajnath singh has so far rejected to lead the party in UP. In fact a party functionary from UP told us "Why will Rajnath singh agree for state politics when he is enjoying the status of head of the state in Pakistan when he visited for the recent SAARC summit.'
The same source also highlighted that why will non-Yadav OBCs agree to play second fiddle to a dominant Thakur caste? So, the BJP could go for a bouquet of leaders from the state as they did just after the second phase of elections in Bihar when the bahari (outsider) card was played up by the Mahagathbandhan, forcing the BJP to replace its posters overnight from that of PM-Shah to over 10 leaders from the state.
Santosh Gangwar MoS for finance and MP from Bareilly said: "Party Jayegi chunav mein." In a way acknowledging that there may not be a single leader who will be acceptable to the huge state whose character changes from the east to the west.
An MP from UP who didn't wish to be quoted said, "democracy is personality-based, and in 2014, people voted for Modi and not for us." That reminded us of the BJP advertisement in which the PM would appear and say , "aapka vote seedha mujhe milega, isliye kamal par mohar lagaiye."
A leader also highlighted that Thakurs of UP had voted against the BJP and given Samajwadi Party nearly 40 seats in 2004 as Rajnath Singh was sidelined in 2002.
DO MUSLIMS MATTER?
Sources in the Congress say that the party move of 'UP Ki bahu' Sheila as Brahmin CM face is more of a message to the Muslims. That a dominant caste has come with them and the Muslims who constitute over 18 percent in UP can also now trust them with their votes.
The Muslims of UP however have never voted en bloc. 54 percent of 18 percent Muslims voted for SP in 2002 assembly elections, they deserted SP partially in 2009, and in 2014 voted for various parties in several constituencies.
A senior BJP leader we had spoken to during the 2014 elections had remarked rather candidly, "5 ali par Ek Bajrang bali" referring to how the Muslim vote in western UP will be divided as just about every political party except the BJP has fielded a candidate from that community.
Kalraj Mishra, minister from the state dismissed suggestions that Ram Mandir can be raised as an issue to polarise the electorates.
He said, "Ram Mandir is a national issue not a political issue. Why should it be raised before elections, we would want consensus on it and are hopeful the SC could take it to a logical conclusion."
CASTE COMBINATION A SPECIAL FOCUS IN CABINET RESHUFFLE
Leaders highlight the importance of collective leadership by saying that the cabinet reshuffle in the first week of July was aimed at signalling the PM-Shah mind on UP strategy.
In all there are 14 ministers from UP in the current council of ministers. Anupriya Patel is a prominent backward caste face who can claim support of Kurmis in eastern UP, where Nitish kumar is trying to make a foray.
Not only this, the induction of Krishna Raj from Pasi community is aimed at taking on Mayawati.
GETTING HOUSE IN ORDER
This image of a united Congress has come to haunt the BJP. The party's UP executive, according to many state leaders, doesn't have representatives from across the state.
In fact a party MP took a dig at state party chief Keshav Prasad Maurya, telling us, "he is neither a caste leader nor a mass leader" and that he is "completely unknown."
UP Congress President Raj Babbar with party's CM candidate Sheila Dikshit, senior party leaders Sanjay Singh and Rita Bahuguna Joshi at a road show in Lucknow. (PTI)
The leader also highlighted that how the upper castes within the party are questioning the manner in which former state vice president Dayashankar Singh was sacked for his derogatory comments against Mayawati.
There is also an understanding that perhaps 71 seats in 2014 was because it was a 'mahaul election.' A leader pointed out that in Vajpayee's time the party didn't send a confused narrative as it is doing now over the Ram Mandir issue.
In the political chess of UP, who will checkmate whom is way too early to predict as we are only into the opening moves.
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