Attingal Lok Sabha Polls 2024: In This Kerala Constituency, Evacuation From Ukraine A Key Election Issue

Attingal is one of the 20 Lok Sabha constituencies in Kerala that comprises seven assembly segments — Varkala, Attingal, Chirayinkeezhu, Nedumangad, Vamanapuram, Aruvikkara, and Kattakkada. The sitting MP is Congress’ Adoor Prakash while those in the fray this year along with Prakash are V Muraleedharan of BJP and V Joy of CPM. The constituency will vote in the second phase of the 2024 Lok Sabha elections on April 26 and results of the polls will be declared on June 4.

Political Dynamics

• Advantage BJP? If there is any LS seat where BJP is in striking distance of a win in Kerala, it’s Attingal. The seat was won by Adoor Prakash of the Congress in 2019, snatching it away from the CPM for the first time since 1989. But if on-ground reports and opinion polls are to be believed, Prakash is facing a tough time in this election. A Manorama News-VMR survey has predicted dead heat in the constituency between UDF and LDF. While the race is mainly between UDF and LDF, BJP could emerge as a wildcard. The saffron party is most likely to increase its vote share tally by at least 2-4 per cent. Attingal, like many other parliamentary constituencies in Kerala, has a mix of hills, midlands, and coastal regions, and poses quite a challenge for candidates to reach out to the people to seek votes.
• Adoor Prakash Looks Weak: The incumbent MP was not very active in campaigning until a few days ago. Reports indicate that Prakash was not keen to contest the Lok Sabha elections earlier, as he wanted a ticket for the 2026 assembly elections. Prakash was finally convinced to contest by the AICC leadership. However, his campaign has so far been restricted to roadshows. Prakash is also facing anti-incumbency in the constituency. If on-ground reports are to be believed, there is a very high chance that Prakash will see massive erosion to his slim majority of just about 38,000 votes in 2019. The big question is where these votes would go.
• Pressure on Prakash: UDF has been claiming that Prakash was an active MP, highlighting how he asked the greatest number of questions in the Lok Sabha. He is also credited with some development initiatives like the setting up of high mast lights in Muthalapozhi harbour, promotion of the Varkala–Sivagiri tourism circuit and establishment of a new ESI hospital in Navaikulam. However, the LDF has been criticising the MP, calling his contributions superficial. They also allege that Prakash has been largely absent from the constituency. Prakash has also faced criticism that many projects have not been completed. Incidentally, Prakash is not a native of Attingal, having previously been an MLA from Konni for five terms. Congress is handicapped by a very weak organisational system in Attingal. There’s criticism that the cadre are working with voters lists in many areas that are over 10 years old. In 2019, the Sabarimala issue had polarised voters in the constituency against the Left. But the benefit had not gone to BJP. Instead, it was Prakash who benefited, and pulled off a narrow win. But this time around, there is no such emotive issue helping him. Reports indicate that the voters of Attingal are clearly voting on the basis of development and/or religious-political affiliations this time. Congress finds itself in a bind with very few communities that it can claim the captive votes of. Ultimately, Prakash can only hope that the significant anti-incumbency against the Left government, and a polarisation of minority votes in his favour can help him scrape through.
• Muslims Votes Hold Key: Attingal has a significant Muslim population of around 14 per cent as per the 2011 census. Chances are that this figure has increased further in the intervening decade. Areas like Varkala, Nedumangad and Chirayinkeezhu have large Muslim populations. Reports indicate that a major chunk of this vote would go to Prakash. However, there are also indications that a small portion will swing towards the LDF’s candidate V Joy. The SDPI has announced its support for the UDF for the upcoming elections. The hardline-Muslim outfit, with links to Popular Front, has a small footprint in Attingal. In 2019, it had polled around 5,000 votes. But more importantly, many more voters are associated with SDPI clandestinely, and often vote en masse for Congress or Left depending on the situation. Another interesting factor is the long-term game plan of former Congress MLA Varkala Kahar. Kahar had been defeated by V Joy in 2016 assembly elections. Reports indicate that Kahar is now very keen to get Joy elected to the LS (at the expense of Prakash), so that he himself will have the upper hand when a by-election is announced in Varkala which Joy represents. Kahar has a significant sway over Muslim voters in Varkala.
• BJP In Striking Distance: The presence of MoS V Muraleedharan in the fray has made the result unpredictable in Attingal. On-ground reports indicate that the BJP’s election work has been exemplary, with booth-level interventions. There is a high chance that the BJP will better its tally of 2.48 lakh votes that Sobha Surendran had won in 2019. The gap between Sobha and Prakash was around 1.5 lakh votes. This time, anti-incumbency against Prakash and the LDF government i.e. V Joy, could end up helping the BJP in a big way. Locals strongly believe that if he wins, Muraleedharan is sure to get a cabinet berth in Modi 3.0. Also, he is seen as a less of a hardliner than Sobha, which could attract some Christian votes his way. Muraleedharan’s campaign on the ground has also been high profile, with top leaders like Nirmala Sitharaman and S Jaishankar visiting the area. The cadre strength of the BJP is also very strong, and reports say campaigning has been scientific. Muraleedharan has also made it a point to be seen as someone who is ready to provide solutions for the issues of locals. For example, he recently visited a colony in the area which was not getting piped water connection. He promised to ensure that water supply for the 30 families living there would be the first file he signs as MP. Muraleedharan had lost the 2016 assembly elections from the nearby assembly constituency of Kazhakkottam. Since then, he has made it a point that he remains visible on the round in the Thiruvananthapuram area. Muraleedharan, despite being a Union minister, has always involved himself in Kerala’s affairs. As deputy to Sushma Swaraj and S Jaishankar, he has been a saviour for Malayalis whenever they needed help abroad.
• A Vote for ‘Muraliyettan’: Interestingly, Muraleedharan’s security deposit for the Attingal fight was paid by students whom the Centre repatriated to Kerala from war-torn Ukraine in 2023. Muraleedharan has also earned goodwill over his successful efforts to bring back three young men who were trapped by a recruiting agency to fight in Russia. Two of them belong to Anchuthengu in Attingal. The attitude towards BJP also seems to have undergone a significant change in the area. On-ground reports indicate that a large number of voters have benefited from central schemes. There are many takers for Mudra loans, and with some parts of the Lok Sabha being agricultural belts, there are many beneficiaries of the farmer pensions being paid by the Modi government.
• Joy of Attingal: For the CPM, recapturing Attingal has become a prestige issue. Attingal had previously elected several CPM veterans like Susheela Gopalan, A Sampath and Varkala Radhakrishnan. That’s why it has fielded V Joy who is both Varkala MLA and the Thiruvananthapuram district secretary. Joy has already completed two rounds of campaigning in the constituency. For long a Left bastion, Attingal also has strong cadre to ensure that CPM can reach out to voters in every booth. As district secretary, Joy has complete control over the campaign activities. Although the 2019 election had seen Prakash win, in the 2021 state assembly elections, the Left had swept all seven assembly segments in Attingal. In fact, the CPM victory margin in some of the assembly seats was huge — Attingal (approx. 31,000 votes), Chirayinkeezhu (approx. 24,000 votes) and Kattakada (approx. 23,000 votes). This has lent heart to the CPM cadre, who believe they can snatch the constituency from Prakash with just a bit of effort. Joy has the advantage of seven MLAs campaigning and standing in for him in various contact programmes. Joy has been at pains to target Congress, saying it’s a party that cannot be trusted. He has questioned the Congress’ stand on issues like the Citizenship Amendment Act, with an aim to woo away the Muslim voters from Prakash. V Joy has accused the Congress of a secret understanding with the BJP. Joy is also not too far off the mark in highlighting how there have been a large number of defections from Congress to BJP. Prakash has been struggling to defend against the claims by a BJP leader that the party cadre had voted him to power in 2019 to prevent the CPM from winning.
• Age Just a Number? At only 58, Joy is also younger than other two candidates in the fray. Prakash is touching 70 and V Muraleedharan is 65. Joy’s campaign has been very vigorous. As a local, Joy knows the constituency like the back of his hand, having been the president of Azhoor Panchayat and Chirayinkeezhu Block Panchayat before. However, V Joy will have to contend with a serious anti-incumbency wave sweeping the state against the state government. Many voters have been questioning why the government has failed to address basic issues like compensation for families who will lose homes to the coastal highway project. Reports also indicate that the inability of the government to ensure sufficient supplies in Supplyco and Maveli stores during the Easter-Eid-Vishu season will have a significant impact. At the same time, the state government has been spending lavishly on programmes like Keraleeyam and the CM’s statewide Nava Kerala Sadas outreach programme. A widespread clash had ensued last year following Youth Congress protests against the CM’s Nava Kerala Sadas. DYFI workers had targeted the house of a Youth Congress leader Suhail. In retaliation, Youth Congress attacked the home of Attingal Municipal Standing Committee Chairman Najam. Conflict had also erupted in Venjaramoodu. Another issue that could work against V Joy is the Kandala Cooperative Bank scam which saw a CPI leader and his son get arrested by the ED. Kandala is an area in the Attingal LS. Despite all these challenges, there is a sense that V Joy remains on strong wicket and if the CPM cadre can overcome the strong anti-incumbency against the state government, he has a shot at winning.
• Caste Dynamics: While it is almost certain that the Nair and upper caste Hindu vote will be with the saffron party, most of the SC and ST votes are also likely to swing this way. Reports indicate that the BJP has been able to make significant headway into these segments through active interventions. Muraleedharan has also been taking up issues like the availability of medicines in government hospitals, access to healthcare for SC/ST colonies etc. He had even trekked to a tribal colony in Kallar recently to interact with locals. All three candidates in the fray are from the politically significant, and possibly numerically superior, Ezhava community. Therefore, a vote split here can be expected. However, the support of alliance partner Vellapalli Natesan’s BDJS is crucial for the BJP in consolidating this vote. In 2016, BDJS candidates had eaten into the votes of UDF candidates in Varkala and Nedumangad. The spiritual centre of Ezhavas, Varkala Sivagiri Madhom, falls in this constituency. However, the complete backing of the seers of this holy centre cannot be expected. Reports indicate that the seers are split between backing Muraleedharan and V Joy, since the latter is a local. Most importantly, the BJP has been trying hard to make inroads in the Nadar community in Thiruvananthapuram district. They hold significant sway over areas like Kattakada where the PM will campaign. The Nadars are both Hindu and Christian, with the latter more affluent. They have solidly stood behind the Congress in the past. Reports indicate that this time, there could be a split in Nadar votes which could help the BJP. The Nadar Christians form the backbone of the CSI South Kerala Diocese. The Diocese Secretary TT Praveen is facing an ED probe for disproportionate assets. The CSI church had recently raised the issue with Thiruvananthapuram BJP candidate Rajeev Chandrashekhar and had been reassured by BJP.
• Caste Maths: The saffron party has also been trying very hard to reach out to Latin Catholic voters in coastal fishing communities. There is a significant number of these voters in Attingal. Reports say BJP has been ensuring that karyakartas are holding local-level contact programmes in fishing colonies. BJP has also been promising concrete actions like a scheme to provide flats to fishermen who lost their homes to sea erosion after Cyclone Ockhi. There are also proposals promised for subsidy to purchase boats and to replace existing diesel engines with CNG/LNG engines. However, the saffron party has also received a setback with Thiruvananthapuram Latin Catholic archbishop Thomas J Netto highlighting the Manipur issue and attacks on Christians in North India. The archbishop has cited that the attacks on Christians had jumped from 147 in 2014 to 687 in 2023. Latin Catholic community rarely behaves as a homogenous voting bloc and chiefly choose between UDF and LDF. Recently, at a programme organised by Latin Catholic Diocese, coastal voters had vented their frustration at lack of transparency in the coastal highway project, issues related to Muthalapozhi Harbour and Blue Economy policy of Union government. Another big demand from the church is dropping of cases registered against those who had protested against the Adani port at Vizhinjam.

Key Election Issues

• Voter List Discrepancies: Attingal is facing a major controversy surrounding voter list discrepancies and the presence of a substantial number of duplicate names. Prakash has raised the allegation, claiming the existence of over 1.5 lakh duplicate entries. Despite submitting a detailed list of 1,72,000 suspected duplicate entries, Prakash alleges the Election Commission removed only a small fraction. He further alleges that officials are hesitant to take corrective action due to pressure from the government.
• Attingal Bypass: The long-awaited Attingal bypass project has become a point of contention among the three major political fronts as they vie for credit ahead of the upcoming elections. Work on the bypass is happening at record pace. The LDF has been emphasising its role in facilitating land acquisition, while the UDF claims Prakash was responsible for expediting the project. On the other hand, it’s the BJP who can really claim any serious credit because the work is being carried out by the NHAI. This scramble for credit underscores the political significance of the project.
• Connectivity: Connectivity to and from various places in Attingal remains a major issue, which has hampered economic and industrial development in the constituency. The Attingal Bypass, now under construction, had been a major demand of the electorate in the last Lok Sabha elections in 2019 and the 2021 assembly elections. The widening of NH-66 has immensely benefitted areas like Attingal town. But public transport connectivity to areas in Varkala, Vamanapuram and Aruvikkara remains low. With plans announced to connect the Thiruvananthapuram Airport to various parts of the city with a new metro rail, the residents of Attingal are also demanding metro connectivity.
• Evacuation from Ukraine: V Muraleedharan’s role in Operation Ganga, launched for the evacuation of Indians stuck in Ukraine, will have its biggest effects in Attingal Lok Sabha constituency. As mentioned earlier, a delegation of rescued students had paid the security deposit for Muraleedharan. His role in repatriating Anchuthengu natives stuck in Russia has also helped build his image and will be crucial to swing coastal voters.
• Political Violence: Face-offs between political groups have become a key issue in Attingal. There have been multiple incidents involving threats and assaults on political figures and party workers. Recently, Muraleedharan’s convoy was targeted by some youth allegedly affiliated to the CPM. A CPM ward member, Biju, was attacked while campaigning and suffered severe burn injuries after a man threw hot gruel on him. Earlier there had been political violence between DYFI and Youth Congress activists in the area.
• Campus Politics: The politicisation of campuses has also found resonance in the area. JS Sidharthan, the second-year veterinary student who tragically passed away in February following severe ragging by SFI students at Pookode, belonged to Attingal. His father has been running from pillar to post to get justice for him. There is palpable anger against the Left government over the incident, as it is perceived to be shielding the accused. Dr GJ Shaiju, the principal of Kattakada Christian College, and SFI leader Visakh, were suspended following allegations of document fabrication to manipulate college elections. Both face charges including fraud and forgery. The university has also barred Shaiju from duties for five years, and the Kerala University registrar filed a complaint prompting police action.
• Narcotics: The rising issue of drugs is a major concern in Attingal. For one, Varkala is a major tourist hub and there have been several instances of drug busts. Muraleedharan has alleged that the drug mafia was behind the attack on an RSS worker in Kattakada on March 21. Last year, a young man called Sreejith was beaten to death in a gang war between drug mafia. In December, police had arrested a gang of drug peddlers who were guarded by pitbulls.
• Varkala Tourism: Varkala is a renowned tourist destination in Attingal and has seen rapid growth. But it faces a complex set of challenges that threaten its reputation and sustainability. While the Varkala beach attracts visitors with its natural beauty and surfing opportunities, issues such as safety concerns, stray dog menace, and infrastructure limitations require urgent attention. The recent death of a foreign tourist while bodysurfing, and the collapse of a floating bridge have raised concerns about safety. Hotels and restaurants are on the rise, but lacking proper infrastructure for waste management, there have been a rising number of dog attacks on visitors and residents.
• Religious Issues and Conversion: The issue of Love Jihad and Narcotics Jihad have also found resonance with some of the electorate in Attingal. Church leaders have been highlighting the issue across Kerala. Of late, there have been signs of increasing friction between Muslims and Christians, some of the antagonism also stems from economic and social causes.
• Stagnation of self-help groups: The decline of self-help groups (SHGs) in the coastal areas of Attingal has emerged as a pressing issue, impacting the livelihoods of thousands of women and their families. These SHGs, which were once a vital source of income generation and community development, have faced significant challenges in recent times, leading to their stagnation and closure. The Trivandrum Social Service Society (TSSS), responsible for managing many of these SHGs, faced a major setback when the Union government refused to renew its permit to receive foreign contributions. There is anger among women voters in the area due to this. The decline of SHGs has had a ripple effect on the coastal communities. The situation has become so dire that some women have reportedly resorted to desperate measures, such as drug peddling to tourists, to cope with the financial strain. SHGs have been a key source of income of nearly 20,000 women in Attingal, producing consumer items like pickles, jams, dry fish, and soaps.
• Lack of Industrial Development, Unemployment and Emigration: Attingal has few major industries, and a large section of the population is reliant on either small-time agriculture or working on fishing boats. The development of Varkala as a major tourist hub has generated some employment, but not enough. Educated youth from Attingal have to commute to nearby Thiruvananthapuram or elsewhere for job opportunities. The area boasts an extremely high literacy rate of 97 per cent but the lack of industries also means a higher rate of unemployment.
• Water Crisis: Although not as pronounced as in the capital Thiruvananthapuram, many areas in Attingal are facing a water crisis. The Attingal water supply section is number one when it comes to pipe bursts — 6635 pipe bursts in three years — pointing to inefficiencies in the water distribution system. In a bid to find a permanent solution for the drinking water shortage faced by residents of Varkala and Attingal municipalities, Kerala Water Authority had promised to construct six check-dams on Vamanapuram River. But work is far from complete.

Voter Demographics

Total Voters: 13,39,985

Rural voters: 885,730 (66.1%)

Urban voters: 454,255 voters (33.9%)

Social Composition (approx):

SC: 171,518 (12.8%)

ST: 16,080 (1.2%)

Religious Composition (approx):

Hindu: 67%

Muslim: 14%

Christian: 19%

Infrastructural Development

• Attingal Bypass: It is a 13-kilometre stretch to bypass the congested Attingal town to develop Cherthala-Kazhakkottam corridor of NH-66. It will start from Kaduva Palli and re-join the existing stretch at Mamam just after Attingal. This way commuters will be able to avoid the congested Attingal town altogether.
• Rail Infrastructure: The Attingal Lok Sabha constituency has witnessed notable improvements in its railway infrastructure over recent years, enhancing passenger convenience and connectivity within the region. Murukkampuzha station saw a significant platform-raising project, improving accessibility for passengers. New installations have also come up at Varkala, Kadakkavur, Kaniapuram, Edava, and Kappil stations. Works are ongoing at these stations on foot overbridges, sanitation and water supply facilities.
• Varkala Railway Station: The Varkala Sivagiri railway station is set to undergo a significant redevelopment project, aimed at enhancing passenger experience. The revamped station will prioritise safety and accessibility for tourists who flock to the Varkala town for pleasure, and also the pilgrims who annually visit the Varkala Sivagiri Ashram.
• Water Treatment Plant at Aruvikkara: To enhance water supply in Thiruvananthapuram, the Kerala Water Authority (KWA) is evaluating a proposal to construct a new 102 MLD water treatment plant at Aruvikkara. This proposal recommends utilising funds initially allocated for a pipeline project to build the new plant which would significantly augment the city’s water treatment capacity.
• Varkala Beach Development Masterplan: The Tourism Department is formulating a comprehensive master plan to develop Varkala as a major international beach tourism hub. This plan envisions a three-phase approach, focusing on resolving immediate issues like parking, pedestrian amenities, wastewater management, and safety concerns. Additionally, efforts are underway to declare Varkala as a special tourism zone with relaxed regulations to attract more visitors. The master plan also includes long-term goals such as the conservation of the eroding Varkala cliff and securing UNESCO Geopark status for the site.

Stay Ahead With all the Lok Sabha Election 2024 Related Real-Time Updates At News18 Website.