Mumbai: For the first time, all major political parties in Maharashtra have taken a gamble in its recent political history. The 25-year-old relationship between the Shiv Sena and the BJP ended on a sour note, last week. On the same day, the ruling Congress and NCP also ended their relationship.
All four major parties, Congress, NCP, Shiv Sena and BJP are trying their luck on their own. With Raj Thackeray led MNS is also in the fray, the traditional two horse race has now become a very interesting multi horse race. The MNS has a strong presence in the pockets Mumbai - Thane and Nasik regions and may win quiet a few seats there.
However, the main contest will be among the four major players across the state. According to a political analyst, it may throw up some interesting results.
Each Assembly seat in Maharashtra has over two lakh votes on an average. About one and a half lakh voters may exercise their right in each constituency and about 25,000 votes may go to smaller parties, rebels and independents. The four major parties (in some seats five major players) will have to share the remaining 1.25 lakh to 1.5 lakh votes.
The candidate who gets 40,000-50,000 votes can easily get elected in such a scenario. Since the competition is so intense and very close, any party with an assured vote bank of over 30,000 votes has a chance.
The Congress which had lost all hopes till the break up of Shiv Sena - BJP alliance now thinks it has an outside chance and can put up a decent fight. According to a Congress worker, in many seats the Muslims have over 25,000-35,000 votes and Congress has a vote bank of at least 40,000 in these seats.
The Shiv Sena, which has taken a huge risk by going on its own under Udhav Thackeray, is also making similar calculations. A leader claims that if the party manages to get 40,000 votes in 150 seats, it will be in the driver's seat post election results.
The BJP is also hoping that it can manage 35,000-45,000 votes in at least 125-150 seats and can emerge the winner.
Sharad Pawar led NCP is keeping all its cards close the chest. The NCP is the only party which can go with any party post results. If the Congress manages 100 seats and the NCP gets 50-60 seats, it can go back to the Congress to form the government. If the Shiv Sena manages 100 seats and the NCP manages 50-60 seats, it can with the Shiv Sena. If the BJP manages to emerge as the single largest party, the NCP can even go with the BJP.
The Shiv Sena and the BJP can also come together post result. But the Congress - Shiv Sena and Congress - BJP alliance is impossible. Wherever the MNS eats into the Shiv Sena votes, the Congress and the BJP have an advantage. But a senior journalist claims that the MNS more harm the BJP more than it can harm the Shiv Sena. The MNS is raking up the Marathis versus Gujaratis issues he says.
Another journalist said "whoever has a vote bank of 25,000 votes can influence or buy another 15,000-20,000 can easily win. This time, the money will flow like water and the smaller castes and groups can decide the results. This election is going to be the most interesting since the 1977".
Everybody has an outside chance in Maharashtra election, this time!
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