Finepoint | With Hezbollah Decapitated, Iran Takes Israel’s Bait. Is an All-Out War Coming?

Note that the distance between Iran and Israel comprises the entirety of Iraq, Syria and Jordan. There are videos doing rounds of missiles landing on Israeli targets, indicating that Iran managed to overwhelm Israeli air defences including its Iron Dome system.

Iran’s trigger was the killing of Hezbollah chief Hassan Nasrallah. In the last few weeks, Iran was brought to a breaking point. Israel carried out a coordinated attack, blowing up thousands of pagers owned by Hezbollah members in Lebanon. The attack killed dozens of reserved fighters of the Lebanese militant group, and maimed hundreds, terrorising the terror group. Israel then went on to blow up satellite phones and other communication devices the next day at the funeral of the victims. Ruthless, all the way. But this was not over yet. Iran chose not to directly respond to the attack. And Israel had a bold plan in store.

Right when Israeli PM Netanyahu was giving his speech at the UN General Assembly, Israeli Defence Forces (IDF) carried out airstrikes in Beirut, eliminating the chief of Hezbollah, Hassan Nasrallah, along with the rest of its top military command. In his speech, other than justifying his attack on Hamas in Gaza, the Israeli prime minister said that Israel would not accept a terror army perched on its northern border ready to carry out another 7th of October-style massacre. This was in reference to Hezbollah.

In fact, Netanyahu is said to have approved the strike before he commenced his speech. Right when Iran responded, Israel was actually in the middle of cross-border raids in Southern Lebanon and planning an all-out ground invasion against Hezbollah. Its stated motive was to ensure the security of its people and ensure the return of exiled civilians from parts of Northern Israel owing to tensions with Hezbollah across the north border. But the larger agenda appears to be to lure Iran into a direct confrontation.

One of the reasons for this is that Israel intends to overtly strike Iranian nuclear facilities and effectively end Tehran’s nuclear weapons programme. It also has its eyes set on Ali Khamenei, the supreme leader of Iran, and the Iranian regime which has funded and raised a cohort of armed proxy groups across the Middle East, like Hamas in Gaza, Hezbollah in Lebanon and the Houthis in Yemen, all of which are programmed solely to target Israeli interests.

Israel can target Iran’s oil facilities, hurting its economic prospects. All in all, Israel wants to cripple Iran, perhaps to remove the threat once and for all. What else can explain Israel’s conduct in the last few months? It has crossed every red line laid out by Iran. It has emasculated Iran on the world stage. Note: the intent to humiliate has not been lost on the world. First, the endless bombing in Gaza and the obliteration of Hamas. Then the assassination of Hamas’ leader Ismail Haniyeh in a blast while he was in Tehran as a guest of the Iranian government. Fast forward to the killing of Fuad Shukr, a military leader of Hezbollah and ultimately the wiping out of Nasrallah himself.

Hezbollah, as it stands today, has been decapitated. It is said that, thanks to an intelligence mole inside Iran, Israel knew the exact whereabouts of Nasrallah for months. Apparently, Nasrallah was slated to move, so Israel planned an operation to kill him before he disappeared again. This is significant because the group is considered the most prized jewel in Iran’s kitty. In fact, it is known to be the most powerful non-state actor in the world, stronger than the Lebanese Army and an extension of Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC).

It has a vast reserve of rockets and other firepower and thousands of fighters. It has emerged as a formidable political force in Lebanon and Nasrallah, in particular, was seen as the most powerful man in Lebanon. And he has a long history when it comes to fighting Israel and serving Iran.

Hassan Nasrallah was the leader of Hezbollah, a Shia Muslim militant group, from 1992 until his death. Under his leadership, Hezbollah transformed from a local resistance movement into a formidable regional force, supported especially by Shia Muslims across the region. Supported by Iran’s IRGC, Hezbollah became the crown jewel of Iran’s regional strategy, a powerful proxy in its shadow war against Israel.

Nasrallah was the face of Hezbollah’s military and political strength in Lebanon, but also its growing influence in Syria, Yemen, and Iraq. His leadership enabled Hezbollah to stockpile tens of thousands of rockets and missiles, which were primarily aimed at Israel.

Given the formidability of the group, Nasrallah’s death was perhaps not on the world’s bingo card. People were in denial when Israel claimed it had eliminated Nasrallah. From Lebanese civilians to global experts, everyone took this info with a grain of salt, until the confirmation came from Hezbollah’s end. This was followed by protests across the region, but also celebration, since he was after all a divisive personality. Journalists were seen tearing up on air at the news of his death.

However, News18 could not independently verify the authenticity of the video.

But why was it so hard to believe that Israel could eliminate Nasrallah? Over the years, Nasrallah built an image akin to a genius and invincible cult leader. He was hardly ever seen in public. For years, he had only been appearing in recorded messages on screen. The general perception was that he was untraceable and untouchable. But that turned out to be a facade when Israel took him out. This was a humiliating blow. That too when everyone’s attention panned towards Iran, which had so far been trying to avoid taking the bait which would trigger an escalation and a direct confrontation with Israel. This was perhaps the last straw.

But it remains to be seen whether Iran will wholeheartedly fight Israel or whether this retaliation was just another face-saving ruse before it seeks de-escalation again.

However, the dynamics of the region have significantly changed undeniably. Whether or not Hezbollah can regroup soon, Israel’s assassination of Nasrallah is monumental. Hezbollah is arguably Iran’s most critical proxy group in the region, one that serves not just to exert influence in Lebanon but also as a key deterrent against Israel, should it attempt to target Iran, and particularly its nuclear facilities. Hezbollah’s rockets — and Nasrallah’s leadership — have long posed an existential threat to northern Israel. For Iran, Hezbollah’s survival is, therefore, crucial. It provides Tehran with a forward base to harass Israel without risking an all-out war. So, the elimination of its leadership has left a gaping hole in Iran’s regional power structure.

The weaker Hezbollah becomes, the more exposed Iran is. And with the US now directly involved in the Israeli war room, the situation has become even more complex.

Views expressed in the above piece are personal and solely that of the author. They do not necessarily reflect News18’s views.