Think about it this way: India currently has about 15 cars per 1,000 residents. The UK has 560. Do you think Indian consumers will gladly accept a much lower standard of "motorisation" than the West already enjoys? One of the first big-ticket purchases of new members of the middle class is a car - and this quickly becomes a key asset for work, pleasure and quality of life. Thanks to demand in India and other emerging markets, by 2020 the global auto industry will probably be producing about 100 million cars per year (up from nearly 75 million in 2010). Yet, given the magnitude of global warming, as well as quality of life issues such as air quality and noise pollution, we cannot continue to rely exclusively on internal combustion engine cars. We need zero-emission vehicles in all major markets - including the regions that will experience the biggest growth over the next several decades.
The year 2012 will be important for electric vehicles and for the Renault-Nissan alliance. Nissan will begin the year with more than 20,000 LEAFs (Leading, Environmentally friendly, Affordable, Family cars) already delivered to owners on three continents. Throughout the year, Renault will launch a full family of four electric vehicles: The Kangoo ZE minivan, the Fluence ZE family sedan, the Twizy urban 2-seater, and the ZOE compact hatchback.
They all meet or exceed the highest standards of reliability and safety. They also offer the flexibility of recharging from conventional power sources or from purely renewable resources such as solar panels.
But let's be rational and realistic: Consumers around the world bought about 75 million vehicles in 2010. Less than 20,000 of them were electric.
By 2015, Renault-Nissan will have sold a cumulative 1.5 million electric vehicles. By 2020, about 10 percent of the global car market will be electric. At that point, we will look back and say that 2012 was critical - the first year that many consumers had a meaningful selection of compelling zero-emission vehicles at reasonable prices. Will 2012 be the year EVs go 'mass market'? It depends on your definition. But there's no question 2012 will represent a big step forward in the planet's paradigm shift toward clean transportation.
By the way, emerging market leaders are also part of this transformation. No country wants to be beholden to a single, non-renewable fuel source - particularly one imported. That's why so many governments are encouraging citizens to buy cars that can run on multiple fuel sources. EVs are 'energy agnostic': They can be fuelled with nearly any type of fuel, including local and renewable sources such as nuclear, solar, wind and geothermal energy.
Carlos Ghosn, global CEO of the Renault-Nissan alliance, he is best known for making Nissan, which was almost bankrupt earlier in the decade, profitable.
(As told to Ashish K Mishra)
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