Nomination papers for the Karnataka Assembly elections have been filed. The Congress is facing rebel trouble while the BJP and the JD(S) want to exploit this. The KJP is trying to fish in the troubled waters. So what's the actual ground situation? D P Satish, senior editor, CNN-IBN, joined IBNLive readers for an interaction on the issue.
Q. Will BSR Congress win a few seats? What may be the performance of other regional forces in Karnataka? Asked by: Sathyaki
A. It might win 1 or 2 seats. Party has been decimated in the recent urban local body polls. Sriramulu is fighting a losing battle. He may retain his seat. Bellary Reddy's the most hated in Karnataka.
Q. Is Karnataka heading for a hung assembly? if so its worst.. but the problem of ticket distribution is always high in the party which is poised for a win and that may not affect the prospects of the party much. Asked by: Sathyaki
A. Looks like that. Congress is very good at turning certain victory into certain defeat. Dispute ticket to moneybags and CM Ibrahim like turncoats can cost Congress dearly.
Q. According to you how many seats will each party win based on the candidates fielded by them? Asked by: Kashyap
A. Kashyap, I am not a clairvoyant! Can't guess. But, it looks Congress will be the single largest.
Q. It looks like Congress is having more trouble than BJP right now?? Lots of tickets have been given to wrong people? how much impact will it have on elections. Asked by: Ganesh
A. Yes. Congress seems to have lost at least 20-25 seats which were winnable. Highhandedness of high command in Delhi and the bloated egos of some state leaders have complicated this election for Congress. If Congress stops at 90-100 seats, then blame ticket distribution.
Q. Last time the BJP swept the Mumbai Karnataka and Central regions which account for more than 70 seats. Now if the KJP which is now competing in all these regions takes away a chunk of the Lingayat vote, then can it be possible for the Congress (which was second in all these regions and lost some by a few 1000s) to be the big gainer this time around ? Asked by: Deepak
A. Yes. Congress should benefit hugely by this. KJP has replaced BJP in as many as 8-9 districts across Karnataka. KJP is strong in Haveri, Gulbarga, Bijapur and Davanagere. If KJP eats only into BJP votes, Congress should win a lot of seats from this region. But, ticket distribution has been a disaster. Rebels and angry workers/leaders can vote against Congress.
Q. Who stands where seems to be shifting with every passing day? Asked by: Ananya R
A. You are right Ananya. There are many possibilities. But, there can be only three scenarios once the counting is over. The Congress gets a simple majority, BJP loses 60-70 seats, JD(S) won't be able to cross 40 seats and KJP stops at 10-15 seats. Or the Congress reaches 100 seats and forms government with Independents and the KJP. Or it will be badly fractured mandate like 2004 and any alliance can come to power.
Q. According to you how many seats will each party win based on the candidates fielded by them? Asked by: Kashyap
A. Already answered! I am not a Clairvoyant!!
Q. How many rebel candidates from the Congress have filed their nominations as independents? Asked by: Ankit
A. At least a dozen. But, in another 20-25 seats, those who did not get can work against party. A 'national leader' of the party has fielded a rebel candidate against Congress' official candidate in Bangalore city. There are many more.
Q. Will there not be a free run for independents this time? Asked by: Ananya R
A. Lets pray that it won't happen! We have seen what has happenned in the last 5 years. 5-6 Independent MLA literally held the BJP government to ransom.
Q. Who will have the lion share of Lingayat vote this time around? Asked by: apoorva
A. We can't say that a particular party owns Lingayat votes. Last time, most of them backed Yeddyurappa. This time, KJP and BJP might get a major share. Congress will also get at least 25-30 percent votes.
Q. The Congress seems bent on political harakari, would you agree that they have made a mess of what was a promising case of sure victory Asked by: Ananya R
A. Agree! Please my take on this!! http://ibnlive.in.com/news/karnataka-elections-congress-number-one-but-not-a-winner/385781-62-129.html
Q. Who do you think has chances of becoming a Chief Minister if Congress will be the single largest party? Asked by: Swarup Sagi
A. Congress has more than a dozen CM aspirants. Siddaramaiah, Dr. G Parameshwar and Mallikarjuna Kharge are the top three contenders. People like Moily, D K Shivakumar and H K Patil are hoping that they can also try. It includes even K H Muniyappa. If Congress falls short of a simple majority, it will have to look for somebody who is acceptable to allies.
Q. Who will win? Asked by: kt
A. I don't know!!
Q. Will congress reach 110 despite the rebel factor Asked by: Sathyaki
A. Can't say. Some of their own leaders are expecting just 90-95 seats.
Q. The news reports and other stories indicate that anti incumbency is at an all time high against BJP. Will the Cong be the principal beneficiary of this anti-BJP wave? Assuming that the local body elections get replicated -- will that not give the Cong a clear majority.. I read somewhere that Cong already had a lead of 105+ in assembly segments in local elections. If that's the case, why are pundits predicting a hung assembles? Asked by: Vedanth
A. It is true that there is a strong anti-BJP wave. But, there is no Pro-Congress wave. It can even benefit smaller parties like JDS and KJP.
Q. Is BJP going to face permanent reversal in Karnataka or can it bounce back in future? Asked by: apoorva
A. It can certainly bounce back. Nothing is permanent in politics. Party is still strong. Has a base.
Q. Does not one get the impression that the Congress is simply frittering away a golden come-back chance? To what extent can the JD(S) and BJP benefit from this Congress predicament? Or will Congress rebels (the number of such rebels seems to be growing) hold the key? Asked by: ashwin angirasa
A. Read my take if you have time - http://ibnlive.in.com/news/karnataka-elections-congress-number-one-but-not-a-winner/385781-62-129.html.
Q. If Modi campaigns for one week in Karnataka, will BJP get 90 seats? Asked by: jay
A. I don't think so. Karnataka is not Gujarat. Modi's appeal is limited. He has no followers in rural areas.
Q. What ( how many seats) can BJP realistically expect? Will Moi make difference? Asked by: Sandeep
A. Modi makes no difference. Realistic figures for the BJP would be 50-55 seats.
Q. Will the extreme summer be a dampener on the campaign and voter turn out in the election? Asked by: sundar1950in
A. Yes. April and May are the two hot months in Karnataka. It will be less in city areas and plain areas.
Q. Will it happen that BSY will get importance in a shortage of majority situation to either of the national party? Asked by: sundar1950in
A. Yes. This is what he wants. He is hoping that Cong will fall short of a majority. He wants to be a kingmaker or Deve Gowda!
Q. Will Jagdish Shettar's image do any good to the BJP? Asked by: sundar1950in
A. Does he have an image?! I did not know that!!
Q. Now that Yedurappa not in BJP do you see the lingayat votes going away from BJP. Asked by: Raj
A. Yeddyurappa does not own all Lingayat votes. Since Congress has not given adequate representation to Lingayats, they will mostly likely vote for KJP and BJP.
Q. Who do you think has chances of becoming a Chief Minister if Congress will be the single largest party? Asked by: Swarup Sagi
A. Already answered.
Q. Satish Sir, this time the Congress is trying to focus on OBC's, Muslims and Dalits and has not really reached out to the Lingayats and Vokkaligas. Would you agree Asked by: Ananya R
A. Yes. You are right. But, it can backfire.
Q. If corruption is big issue then don't you think Yeddyurappa should get less than seats otherwise people are not worried about ills of country and vote on caste/religion? Asked by: RAMESH AGARWAL
A. Corruption is not a big issue. It s sad. But, everybody is corrupt. Degree varies.
Q. Mr Satish, after reading analysis of Senior Analysts like you, I strongly believe that BJP can be a single largest party. Your thoughts? Asked by: Rakesh
A. It can't be. I bet on Congress! But, the God only knows!
Q. Is there any change (even 1 percent) to become BJP as a single largest party in this election? Asked by: leo
A. I doubt. With everything going in their favour, BJP got 110 seats in 2008. Situation is now exactly opposite. It can't. If Congress fails miserably, BJP can still beat Congress.
Q. How many seats KJP will win? Will Yeddyurappa be in the position of king maker? Asked by: Raj
A. Yeddyurappa is hoping that he will get at least 25-30. Obviously, he wants to be a Kingmaker.
Q. Being from Karnataka, How do you analyses Kumaraswamy, Siddaramaih, Jagadish shetter and B S Yeddyurappa on this election? Asked by: Mallikarjun
A. Except Shettar, three others are mass leaders.
Q. Is it going to be a hung assembly? who will be the single largest party and who is going to be the second largest party? I know your not a Clairvoyant? but, predict with your experience? Asked by: Elvij
A. Please read my take - http://ibnlive.in.com/news/karnataka-elections-congress-number-one-but-not-a-winner/385781-62-129.html
Q. Recent analysis in most of the newspapers predicted hung assembly with JD(S)playing a major role in formation of the next Government. In such scenario who do you think JD(S) will go? BJP or Congress? Asked by: Nithyanand
A. I think JD(S) prefers BJP. BJP may offer CM post to JD(S) keeping Lok Sabha polls in mind. Moreover BJP-JD(S) have separate vote banks.
Q. In how many seats do you feel do the rebels have a decent chance of hampering the Congress? Asked by: Deepak
A. In 20-25 seats. Directly and indirectly.
Q. A new survey has come up which gives 81 seats to BJP and 95 to Congress?How far do they seem to be correct according to you? Asked by: Ankit
A. Looks correct. But, BJP may not win 81 seats.
Q. I feel non lingayat non-Vokkaliga votes may polarise towards Congress? Asked by: Sathyaki
A. Theoretically, it s possible. Politics has no theory!
Q. Will Rahul's campaign be of any effect in Karnataka? Asked by: sundar1950in
A. Not much. In 2008, he campaigned in 35 seats. Congress lost most of them!!
Q. HDK and HDR with their father's support are a good team. Do they have a chance to bounce back to power? Asked by: sundar1950in
A. Certainly. They can still get 40-50 seats.
Q. Does media influence voters decisions? Asked by: Vaishnavi Hiremath
A. Yes. To some extent.
Q. You mentioned earlier that JDS prefers BJP? But the JDS is also competing with the CONG for minority votes? In such a scenario, will this alliance be feasible for the JDS? Asked by: Deepak
A. Because of that JDS and BJP can come together. All for power.
Q. How was the ticket distribution in BJP this time, i think very less rebel candidates are in fray from BJP.Other then public sentiments i don't think anything else is against BJP? Asked by: Rakesh
A. Trouble free distribution except a few seats. Not much demand this time.
Q. I don't see BJP winning but I feel the congress may get around 95 seats bcoz of infighting and JD(S) I see them at 35.. what do you say sir? Asked by: satish
A. You may be right!
Q. What are the chances of BJP in Mangalore city and Bangalore city? Asked by: sk
A. BJP may finish second in both. Congress candidate selection may go against it in both Bangalore and Mangalore.
Q. Will Modi tour if undertaken make BJP single largest? Asked by: sk
A. No way. Modi is not a big force in Karnataka.
Q. Your premise about Modi not known in Rural is wrong. TV channels cover Modi extensively. So if Modi does whirlwind tour BJP may touch 90. Asked by: sk
A. It s your opinion. TV channels show even Darshan and Sudeep extensively. Can they win?
Q. Will the voting pattern be uniform or diverse in the various regions? Asked by: sundar1950in
A. Each region votes differently. Karnataka is a very complex state. Pollsters nightmare.
Q. Can we expect every party to vie with one another in promising freebies? will it work out to advantage to the parties? Remember the housing offer of Congress failed in Gujarat to get the votes. Asked by: sundar1950in
A. Yes. Poll promises may not always work. There is a limit to populism.
Q. What will be the point in the manifesto which can attract the voters to a political party? Asked by: sundar1950in
A. Tough question. Different people want different things. Poor want free ration, rich want roads/parks and super rich airports!
Q. Mangalore South/North constituencies traditionally voted for BJP. What are the chances this time? Asked by: Sandy
A. BJP has a chance.
Q. Is Siddaramaiah the first among equals in Congress or do Kharge and Parameswar have a chance? I know nothing can be predicted wrt Congress but is there a proverbial dark horse here (in Congress)? Whats your view? Asked by: Deepak
A. Can't say. All 3 are in the race.
Q. Will voters teach lessons to party changers for the shake of power? Asked by: Raj
A. Hope, they will!
Q. Satish Sir, Kumaraswamy is said to have a lot of support among middle and lower middle class Kannada speaking youth. Do you agree? What explains this Asked by: Ananya R
A. Yes, he has. He is a very amiable person. Highly approachable.
Q. Satish, last week in the webchat, Dr Sandeep Shastri the political analyst said that the May elections may have many surprises? Do you agree with him? What according to you are some of the surprises Asked by: Vaishnavi Hiremath
A. Yes, agree with him.
Q. With not much of a love to any party and no good expectations from any of them do you expect the election seeing low voter turn out? If so who will benefit out of it? Asked by: sundar1950in
A. Can't say. It s same all over India. But, people still vote.
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