A year after the disastrous floods hit North India, leaving a trail of destruction, the geologically fragile and ecologically sensitive Himalayan region is bracing for another season of intense rain. The weather department has forecast above normal rain till September, and there is a greater likelihood of flashfloods upstream.
As of July 17, there is a 35% shortfall in seasonal rains in Jammu and Kashmir, 31% in Himachal Pradesh, while it is in 1% excess in Uttarakhand. As per the India Meteorological Department (IMD), the total rainfall is likely to be above normal by the end of this month, with bursts of heavy rain expected during the season.
There is no denying that the catastrophic floods in North India in July 2023 were caused by an unusual rainfall event – an interplay of complex weather systems. The destruction it caused was worsened by the region’s geological vulnerability, and rampant construction on unstable slopes and riverbeds, say experts.
INDISCRIMINATE CONSTRUCTION ON FLOODPLAINS
Geologists from HNB Garhwal University, University of Delhi, and Physical Research Laboratory (PRL) in Ahmedabad assessed the parts of the upper Beas river basin and its tributaries, which were damaged in the July 2023 floods to study the vulnerability of the terrain and investigate the role of human intervention in the disaster.
According to their study, recently published in journal Current Science, the disaster was amplified when the Beas river was temporarily obstructed by manmade structures –suspension bridges, urban settlements, largely hotels on the floodplains. Many public buildings built along the tributary channels were washed away. The experts have called for a paradigm shift in the perceptions towards the development models in the Himalaya, particularly in areas of recreational tourism such as Kullu and Manali.
ERRATIC MONSOON, CLIMATE CHANGE AND FORECASTING CHALLENGES
The Himalayan rivers are often frequented by flashfloods of varying magnitude during the monsoon. But it is becoming harder to predict the intensity of the rain, especially over smaller areas – akin to cloudbursts.
The continuously warming atmosphere has already increased the probability of short bursts of extreme rainfall globally. The UN-led Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has also projected an increase in the intensity, and frequency of heavy rainfall events as global temperatures spike by 1.1℃ compared to the pre-industrial levels.
Studies show that if this warming trend persists, then the colder climatic belt along the Himalayas would recede to higher altitudes, resulting in the melting of glaciers and thus, contributing additional runoff in a more humid climate regime in regions like Kullu valley.
A YEAR ON, HAVE WE LEARNT ANY LESSONS?
While there is a dire need to control the global emissions, the Western Himalayan states are also a victim to the indiscriminate development, which continues to put pressure on the fragile slopes. “The July 2023 floods in the Beas river should serve as another brutal reminder to change our perception towards the developmental approach in the sensitive region,” scientists warn.
There is a need to relook at this rapid pace of “development” driven by changes in land use and land cover and encroachment on the restricted floodplains of the Himalayan rivers. As climate change intensifies natural disasters in the next few years, it is these manmade factors, which will determine the magnitude and scale at which such events wreak havoc across the land.
These disastrous events are a result of the deadly mix of climate change, erratic rain, unstable slopes, geomorphic vulnerability and uncontrolled development. The mounting infrastructure pressure, particularly hotels/resorts, have added to the inherent fragility of the slopes, driven by increasing tourist demand.
A year on, the memories of the disaster are still afresh. The torrential rains triggered floods, which collapsed the riverbanks resulting in huge debris flow which washed away residential and commercial buildings, including stretches of the national highways with a part of a 100-year-old bridge on Parvati river in Kullu.
As the four-month monsoon hits its peak, it is time to assess our preparedness, should a similar calamity strike again this season.
Comments
0 comment